Population, land cover change, and food security in Latin America from 1961 -2011

Unprecedented population growth attended equally unprecedented land use and land cover changes in Latin America during the second half of the twentieth century, affecting the food security of thousands of agriculturally based communities. The more than doubling of the population of Latin America was accompanied by rural migration to urban areas, and extensification of agricultural land at the expense of forest and natural environments (Carr, Lopez, and Bilsborrow 2009). As population growth continues and the most suitable potential agricultural land diminishes, has intensification followed on the heels of extensification and, if so, has production risen concomitantly? We use data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO) to examine trends in population, agricultural intensification and food production Latin America from 1961-2011. Results indicate rising population (with slowing growth rates) accompanied by soaring intensification in the form of increased fertilizer and mechanization. However, there is no linear relationship between agricultural input and output. Rather, the results point to a Malthusian pattern: inputs increasing exponentially, while outputs increase at best arithmetically.