Predictive model for estimating spending on diabetes mellitus in the elderly in Mexico

The World Health Organization considers that the world is experiencing a pandemic of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes is one of the major health problems which accounts for great healthcare cost. Arredondo et al (2001, 2005) found an average cost range for diabetes from 613 to 887 USD. Besides, future estimates show increments between 10 and 15% in institutions. Methods: We used three National Health Surveys. These surveys are representative at a national and state level. Subjects were considered to have diagnosed diabetes if they had been previously diagnosis by a medical provider. For the estimation of expenditure we used the hospital discharges by diabetic people 65 years old and more, as well as information on budgets diabetes exercised in public health institutions. Preliminary Results: The diagnosed diabetes is increased over time. In 2000 16.9% of adults 65 + had been diagnosed six years later the proportion increased to 17.4% and is 25%. In 2000, 26.7% had five years or less with the diabetes diagnosis. The chronic complications of diabetes are: 39.5% suffering heartburn Discussion: It is recognized that diabetes is one of the major chronic diseases. These predictions must urge the Mexican health system to establish attention programs and improve diabetes care.