Pro-Cyclical Mortality: What Can We Learn From Norwegian Registry Data?

It is well-documented that state-level death rates are pro-cyclical in the U.S and in many other countries. We use regional Norwegian data 1977-2008 and find very similar pro-cyclical patterns in Norway. In trying to better understand the mechanisms, we use individual level registry data for all Norwegian residents 1977 - 2008. Recent U.S. studies have argued that the pro-cyclicality is largely related to external factors like less reliable health care or more motor vehicle fatalities during economic upturns. We too find indications that
external factors could be important, as the pro-cyclicality is more pronounced for individuals drawing disability pension than those not drawing disability pension. While previous studies have been focusing on the associations between unemployment and concurrent mortality, we attempt to also explore the relevance of previous unemployment for current mortality.