A reversal in the population policy of Iran: Do curbing family planning programs raise low fertility?

Following a persistent low fertility rate in the country over the past decade, Iranian leaders recently proposed a shift from an anti- to a pro-natalist population policy. Consequently, conservative political and religious leaders suggested curbing the current family planning program, as a solution to raising the country’s low fertility rate. Using data from two recent large-scale surveys of fertility and fertility intentions and decomposing the relative contributions of proximate determinants of fertility, this study aims to show that any limitations in the provision of family planning services will be unlikely to help increase the current low fertility rate for three main reasons: a high rate of marriage postponement, increasing male involvements in contraceptive use, and a wide spread of low fertility intentions. The study will also identify sub-groups of women who will face greater levels of unintended pregnancies and clandestine induced abortions, if the family planning services are limited. Finally, the new government’s population program, known as “reproductive health”, will be described and discussed.