Risk Of Development Of Cervical Neoplasia In Relation To Sexual Behaviour-Bayesian Approach

Cancer has become a major cause of morbidity in developing countries like India. Cancer of the uterine cervix is one of the commonest malignancies seen in Indian women. Sexual behaviour is one of the issues related to development of cervical cancer. It would be worthwhile to estimate the absolute risk a women runs for getting CIN 3 in the presence of risk conditions. The present communication attempts to estimate the probability of women having a high grade of cervical neoplasia (CIN111) in the presence of certain risk conditions through the Bayesian approach. The data has been utilsed from the reports long term study conducted by ICMR.
The probability of women having a high grade cervical lesion in women more than 35 years would be 0.43. If a women is having parity of more than 2 the risk or probability would be around 0.35%. If a woman is married before 18 years she runs a risk of about 0.7% for the development of the disease under consideration her promiscuous behavior elevates this risk to 1.3%. The role of obstetric practices have also been considered.. Need in modification of sexual behaviour and advocacy for through RCH programs in developing countries is felt