The scenario analysis on Chongqing population trend : Based on the open population, urbanization and PADIS-INT software

Chongqing is the economic center where in the upper of Yangtze River in China. It is the largest population, the lowest urbanization level, and the fastest area with urbanization process than the other three municipalities directly under the central government. The population of residents in Chongqing reached at 29.19 million in 2011, the rate of urbanization reached to 55.02%. The population interprovincial migration in urban-rural transfer has become important factors to affect the population trends .In this paper, we extracted the migration pattern, and urban-rural transfer pattern of age population based on The Sixth National Census data. Secondly we take a urban-rural scenario prediction analysis on Chongqing population in the next 40 years based on the international general population with the software PADIS-INT to predict according to the different fertility, migration level and transfer level. The results show that: the urbanization of Chongqing will get into the rapid development stage in the future, and the urbanization rate will reach to 70.69% in 2030 and 74.33% in 2050; with the industry in the western regions gathered, the population of residents of Chongqing will enter a rising period, and it will reach in a range (30200000,31000000) in 2015, and reach in a range (32500000,35000000) in 2030.