The Short- and Long-term Effects of Rainfall on Migration: A Case Study of Chitwan Nepal

This is a study of the relationship between weather patterns, or rainfall, and migration in rural agricultural areas. The already significant body of research on this topic shows that empirical patterns differ from the conventional assumptions and there is less than expected migration following large and detrimental weather changes. However, more theoretical and empirical detail is needed to understand this process and why the results differ from basic theoretical assumptions. In this study, we use detailed data from rural Nepal to test the effects of weather on short- and long-term migration and we investigate differences between weather in the previous one through six years. Results show that low rainfall increases short-term migration, but decreases long-term migration. Further, we find no evidence that rainfall in the past year influences migration, but that rainfall in the more distant past has strong and significant effects. This suggests that migration might be a strategy to decrease risk in the case when agricultural livelihoods become unsustainable in the long-term.