Spatial Variations in Covariates on Fertility in 2005 and 2010: Geographically Weighted Regression for Small Area Estimates of TFR in Japan

To understand the determinants of raising fertility rates after 2005 in Japan, we investigate the spatial variations of the relationship between fertility and their covariates using geographically weighted regression models in two time points. Our sample is 1,853 towns and villages based on 2010 administrative boundaries. Total fertility rate(TFR) of small areas at 2005 and 2010, which is adjusted by the child-woman ratio, is used as a dependent variable. As for the explanatory factors, we focus on female labor force participation, child-care availability, and economic conditions. We compare coefficients of the GWR between 2005 and 2010. All coefficients on TFR have statistically significant geographical variations. The regional fertility rates rose markedly in the urban areas, where the female labor force participants shows positive relationship with TFR and such areas spread out.