Spatial vs. social distance in the diffusion of fertility decline: Evidence from Sweden 1880-1900

The emergence and diffusion of fertility control strategies as part of the demographic transition are usually not occurring randomly in space and time. Next to individual-level characteristics also prevailing socio-economic contextual conditions as well as geographic characteristics such as distance to centers of the decline seem to be relevant. However, most existing studies on the fertility decline focus either on macro-level trends or on micro-level studies with limited geographic scope. With this paper we aim to contribute to close this existing research gap. We use 100% individual-level samples of the Swedish censuses in the years 1880, 1890 and 1900 which include detailed information on socio-economic status. Multi-level models are applied to link these individuals to contextual information on the local parishes they were living in. Our main research question is whether in this initial phase of the fertility decline in Sweden social distance or spatial distance were more relevant as constraints for the diffusion process. Our preliminary results suggest that in this initial phase of the decline social class differences were putting higher constraints on the diffusion of the fertility decline compared to spatial distances. This is in line with theoretical considerations by Szreter (1996) on “communication communities”.