From Tidal Wave to Shortage: Recent Patterns of Migration Dynamics in China

Since 2004, a new term “the shortage of migrant labor” has captivated the attention of newspaper reporters, factory owners, and policy makers in China. This puzzle seems to be hard to understand given the often reported large size of migrant population. In this paper, we examine this recent puzzle of “the shortage of migrant labor” in China’s Pearl River delta (PRD) region, which hosts largest number of factories in China. Relying on data from several sources (census and survey of migrant workers in PRD), we argue that the “shortage of migrant labor” can be attributed to three main factors: changing destination choices among interprovincial migrants, increased job transitions in the labor market, and a new trend of interprovincial return migration. Empirical evidence supports our argument. Policy implications are discussed.