Trend, patterns and determinants of infant and child mortality in India: A programme perspective

The study aims to examine the trends and patterns of infant and child mortality in India in the light of several programmes. In this paper, three data sources have been used namely, Sample Registration System (SRS) of India from 1971-2010; Inter-Agency Child Mortality Estimation, UNICEF, 2006; and the three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS I, II, III) conducted in the year 1992-93, 1997-98 and 2005-06 respectively. The study uses trend analysis to examine the trends and patterns and Cox-proportional hazard model to find out the determinants of infant and child mortality. The preliminary findings indicate that though there was zigzag pattern in IMR, U5MR and NMR in the beginning but from the decades of 1980s there is rapid decline in these mortalities. Various programmes have been implemented in this period of time which has profound influence on the reduction of the mortalities. It should also be noted that the reduction of mortality is not only because of the influence of one programme but, combined influence of all programmes. The Cox-proportional hazard model indicates that mother’s education and use of unsafe fuel, higher birth order and institutional delivery are significant predictors of infant mortality.