Understanding Demographic Transition in India: A Study Using NSSO Natural Divisions

An attempt has been made in this study to understand the demographic transition taking place in India, its states & below state level units using NSSO natural divisions (by using the CBR and CDR from SRS reports, 2009) as units of analysis as it may throw better insight into the demographic transition taking place below the state level units. Progress made in the fertility transition, mortality transition and the demographic transition as a whole over time was studied using the indices of fertility (FTI), mortality (MTI) and demographic transition (DTI) developed using the TFR and LEB. FTI, DTI and DTI indices are similar in structure to that of the familiar Human Development Index (HDI). The study concludes that the demographic transition in India is progressing slowly in the recent past mainly due to a slow progress in the mortality transition taking place in the Empowered Action Group of states namely Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Orissa. Within the states, there are differences in progress of demographic transition across NSSO natural division. Thus the future progress in the demographic transition in India entirely seems to depend on the future declines in the mortality and fertility of the EAG states.