Weather and Mortality in Sub-Sahara Africa: A Retrospective Analysis of Data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems

Studies in industrialized countries have documented adverse effects of climate and weather variability on population health. Empirical studies from Africa are few. In response to this concern, an INDEPTH Network study was initiated in collaboration with UNESCO as a coordinated effort to assess the relation Climate Change, Migration and Mortality (CLIMIMO). The ultimate aim is improving current understanding of extreme weather effects, time trends and seasonality and thereby, populations vulnerability to climate change using longitudinal data. A dozen INDEPTH member HDSSs participated at a capacity strengthening workshop in Burkina Faso 2011 that provided the instruments for researchers to analyse longitudinal data and more recently in a data analysis workshop in Ghana 2012. This paper presents data from four African countries Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania. Weather data from global observational database, complemented by HDSS-specific meteorological data where available was used. Analyses use time series Poisson regression models, regressing weather condition on the counts of mortality by subgroups of the population. Results show that weather variability is strongly related to mortality with children and older adults being the most sensitive to climate and weather variability-related mortality.