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Laureate 2011 Donald Bogue
IUSSP Laureate 2011
The 2011 IUSSP Laureate Award was granted to Professor Donald J. Bogue in recognition of his outstanding contributions to the advancement of population sciences. The award ceremony will take place during the PAA Annual Meeting in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, March 30, 2011 at 6 pm at the Marriott Wardman Hotel, in Wilson ABC, Mezzanine Level.
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Professor Bogue has been one of the dominant demographers of the last half century. In the 1960s and after, his interest in family planning made him a major force in the worldwide movement for population control. He continues to do active research on topics in human ecology.
Donald Bogue's many interests include demography and human ecology, with emphasis on the impact of fertility, immigration, and internal mobility on nations, communities, and neighborhoods.
Donald Bogue's current research focuses on the impact of immigration and internal migration on the socio-economic well-being of receiving and sending communities, what happens in old age to women and men who never marry, and the changing household and family status of women: working and nonworking.
Letter of nomination submitted on behalf of Donald Bogue
Professor Donald J. Bogue’s active and outstanding career has spanned more than six decades. He has made outstanding contributions to the advancement of the population sciences and his career as a demographer exemplifies high quality population research and the evolution of the field of demography.
Donald Bogue graduated with a BA in sociology from the State University of Iowa (now University of Iowa) in 1939, and received his MA in sociology from Washington State College (now Washington State University) in 1940 with the thesis, “Factors in the Occupational Adjustment of Rural Youth in Whitman County, Washington.” Following military service in the US Navy from 1942-46, Bogue enrolled in graduate school at the University of Michigan, where he received his PhD in 1949 with the dissertation, “The Structure of the Metropolitan Community: A Study of Dominance and Sub-dominance.”
Donald Bogue’s professional career began in 1947 at the Scripps Foundation at Miami University where he was Demographer (1947-53) and Associate Director (1953-57). In 1952, Donald Bogue began his lifelong career at the University of Chicago as an Associate Professor (1952-58), Professor (1958-88), and Professor Emeritus (1988 to the present). He was Associate Director of Chicago’s Population Research and Training Center from 1952-61, and Director of the Community and Family Studies Center from 1962-88.
At the Scripps Foundation Donald Bogue spearheaded many further studies of migration and metropolitan structure and change, advocated demographic methods (state economic areas, techniques for extensive population estimates), and in 1953 he first raised the need for an analysis of urban decentralization and suburban growth, a topic that occupied demographers for the next five decades. In 1954 Donald Bogue published an article on the use of multiple regression and covariance analysis in comparative population and urban research.
At Chicago, Donald Bogue trained dozens of demographers from both developed and developing nations. The scholars he mentored from developed nations include Water Allen, Harvey Choldin, Reynolds Farley, Walter Mertens, Terry Nichols, James Palmore, Jay Teachman, Amy Ong Tsui, and Michael White. Students from Asia, Africa, and Latin America came to study in the master’s or doctoral programs with Donald Bogue. Among many others these included Mohammed Aminur Rohman Khan, Sultan Hashmi, Bhaskar Dutt Misra, Mercedes Conception, Visid Prachuabmoh, Carlos Brambila Paz, Ricardo Vernon Carter, Budi S. Martokoesoemo, and Farag Mohammed El-Kamel. Overall, Donald Bogue trained more than 60 MA and PhD students who became active members of the demographic community in the U.S., in their home nations, and internationally.
In addition to graduate student mentoring, Donald Bogue held 25 summer workshops (roughly 25 students each) at the University of Chicago on the use of microcomputers in population research, family planning program evaluation, and communication for fertility planning. Donald Bogue was also among the first to move such workshops to the countries or regions in which the participants worked to provide a more realistic environment for the training and opportunities for field visits. As part of this effort he held these workshops in Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, Senegal, Lesotho, Gambia, and Tanzania. These workshops were always carefully focused on the science of population research and evaluation. To make sure this was the case, in the earliest years of computer use in population research Donald Bogue wrote and sponsored a series of manuals (see below) that developed demographic methods and accompanying computer programs for fertility analysis, functional population projections, data collection and analysis of contraceptive continuation rates, and numerous other now standard demographic methods. These were used in the workshops and in graduate student training.
In 1964, Donald Bogue founded the journal Demography, successfully advocated that it become the official journal of the Population Association of America (PAA), and was elected President of PAA. During the 1960s and continuing through the 1980s, when demographers increasingly focused on high fertility and population growth, Donald Bogue was a consultant to the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations Advisory Committee on Fertility, member of the Pan American Health Organization Committee on Population Dynamics, Committee on Family Planning of the U.S. Office of Economic Opportunity, and participated in numerous national and international conferences on population problems, family planning programs, and fertility research. The research that Donald Bogue, his students, and his collaborators did on fertility and family planning were based on the science of demography and offered an optimistic perspective to the otherwise population crisis tone of the 1960s and 1970s.
Donald Bogue’s approach to analysis of fertility and population growth was strongly based in social science theories of human behavior and social change. In the 1960s the Chicago School of Sociology was famous for its intellectual attention to social problems, from the ecology of urbanizing areas to equity in access to education to growth in national populations. In this context, Donald Bogue devoted much of his research to understanding the influence of social structural and individual factors on fertility behaviors. Fertility was seen as the main driver of population growth in the developing world and family planning the primary intervention to reduce it. In the 1970s, Donald Bogue was actively engaged in the conduct and support of population-based surveys across a range of settings, the findings from which were published in such monographs as Fertility and Family Planning in Metropolitan Latin America (1972) and Fertility and Family Planning in Rural Northern Thailand (S. Shevasunt and D. Hogan, 1979). In the former, based on 1964-65 surveys in Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Bogota, San Jose, Mexico City, Panama City and Caracas, Donald Bogue concludes: “…the present situation in metropolitan Latin America can best be described as one of high fertility with great potential for future fertility decline.” That expectation, based on finding psychosocial correlates of reproductive preferences, was realized for the continent by the 1990s.
When other sociologists were conducting surveys with the military, schools and labor force, Donald Bogue promoted survey research. In the 1960s and early 1970s, while the measurement of fertility rates was in its nascency, (typically relying on indirect methods of estimation using census data or birth registration records and census data), Donald Bogue’s efforts with surveys prevailed. Since then the Knowledge-Attitude-Practice surveys he advocated, World Fertility Survey he vigorously supported, and their subsequent Demographic and Health Surveys have become iconic programs for our field, and their estimates of demographic rates serve as a gold standard to an ubiquitous extent in the developing world.
Donald Bogue pursued the associations between reproductive behaviors and socioeconomic, demographic, social psychological, reproductive preferences, religiosity, family structure and attitudinal factors. His persistent exploration of normative and psychic costs of children or contraception pulled him into unchartered territory. His research was part of the evolving fabric that would become the social demography of fertility.
In the 1970s, Donald Bogue directed a USAID-funded contract to improve the evaluation of family planning programs’ impact on fertility in low-income countries. Under the family planning evaluation project, Donald Bogue wrote, co-wrote, or supervised the publication of 16 manuals, called the “Orange Manuals,” in a series entitled, “Rapid Feedback for Family Planning Improvement (RFFPI).” Each focused on a particular technique of fertility and family planning analysis and each has a modern-day counterpart, evidencing their enduring methodological relevance and Donald Bogue’s considerable prescience. For example, RFFPI Manual 6, “An Empirical Model for Demographic Evaluation of the Impact of Contraception and Marital Status on Birth Rates,” details a small computer-based, Fortran language program called PROJTARG for which the current counterpart is the much-used FAMPLAN module in the Spectrum series. RFFPI Manual 12, “Techniques for Making Population Projections,” describes another Fortran program for component projections called POPROJ and Manual 13ʼs program FUNCPROJ enables the use of POPROJ output as input for projecting their implications on such development areas as labor force and education. Both POPROJ and FUNCPROJ have their contemporary equivalents in Spectrum and the RAPID model, which are now applied globally by Futures Group International and in projections software of the UN and its agencies. Moreover, RFFPI Manuals 7, 8 and 14 (1971-74) provide Fortran programs to execute bivariate cross-tabulations, single- and multiple-decrement life tables, and multiple regression analysis—routines commonly found now in statistical analysis software packages. Methods to study family planning behaviors’ impact on fertility through continuous use and on program resources are found in other manuals addressing pregnancy history and birth interval analysis, service statistics, and cost-effectiveness analysis. These topics have been incorporated in demographic textbooks, the DHS contraceptive calendar, and management information systems.
Just as Donald Bogue’s promotion of the population-based survey contributes to its long legacy as an instrument for collecting, measuring and analyzing data on fertility levels, trends and determinants, so too did the Orange Manuals’ techniques expand the armamentarium of accessible “tools” to speed population, fertility and family planning analysis. As an innovation, they materialized when computational technology was primitive by current standards—the five-function calculator had just came onto the market and the punched card counter-sorter was being replaced by mainframe computers.
Moreover, Donald Bogue had the unparalleled foresight to assess the correlates of human fertility in the developing world and confidence in the potential of family planning programs, as a policy instrument, to affect it. He found particularly appealing the influence mass communication media could have in fostering ideational change. That confidence is shared today by many development quarters in what are now called behavioral change communication or social marketing programs, widely applied to HIV prevention, improved nutrition and child survival measures.
While many in the world of demography know Donald Bogue for his voluminous and visionary work on issues of fertility and social change in developing countries, his earliest research examined American urban life, population distribution, and migration. And throughout his career, including his published work of the most recent years, he has maintained an abiding interest in, and notable scholarly contribution to, the study of these subjects. The contributions are many and varied and span an extraordinary array of settings.
This work on urbanism dates to Donald Bogue’s graduate training at the University of Michigan (PhD 1949). It was here that he embarked upon a long-term quest to better understand urban life and the forces that shape it. The times were ripe for new investigation: America was just emerging from the Second World War and metropolitan areas were burgeoning. Donald Bogue’s dissertation, The Structure of the Metropolitan Community: A Study of Dominance and Sub-dominance (published as a book by the University of Michigan Press), and a series of publications that followed while he was affiliated with Scripps endeavored to understand how the new economic forces of post-WWII American society were re-shaping the territories of cities and their hinterland. This work helped us understand how new and established cities were suburbanizing and how their internal structure was shifting. Donald Bogue documented the variety of experiences of urban change, by size of city, region, and industrial base. His work marched with growing contemporary interest in human ecology and foreshadowed several disciplines’ work on the organization of urban territory.
Always interested in the latest demographic data and the potential for methodological advance, his research in the 1950s exploited the latest available census data. Donald Bogue worked on developing new methods for estimating intercensal population growth and measuring migration. In this work he documented the shifting balance among American territorial units of varying size classes (and rural territory), pointing out the heterogeneity in experience over time and space. In the landmark collaboration with Calvin Beale, Economic Areas of the United States, Donald Bogue identified and assessed the functional economic geography of the United States in its regional components. It was in this period that he provided the key chapters on “Population Distribution” and “Internal Migration” for the leading collection of demographic essays (Hauser and Duncan’s Study of Population) on the field’s state of knowledge.
As Donald Bogue was advancing the discipline in the 1960s by inaugurating the journal Demography, he returned to his interest in urban social life to edit with noted Chicago urban sociologist Ernest Burgess, Contributions to Urban Sociology (1964), which became a standard in the training of generations of urbanists. Alongside this substantive work, methodological work continued with papers detailing methods for indirection estimation of migration, postcensal population estimates and quality-of-data assessments. Such approaches are part of the legacy of technical demographic analyses that carry forward to today.
Never content to view the world only from the demographic data in his office, Donald Bogue also went directly into the field. In the case of urbanism, this is perhaps no better illustrated than in Skid Row in American Cities (1963). Here Donald Bogue observed directly some of America’s most challenging urban settings of the time, conducting participant observation in Chicago’s Skid Row.
During the era in which some of the greatest interest—for both Donald Bogue and the field of population studies—was in fertility and family planning, Donald Bogue continued his work on urbanism. This included methodological work on ethnic residential segregation, an empirically based rebuttal to the prevailing views regarding ecological analysis (1976), more work on technical estimation and analysis for migration and population distribution, and studies of how population aging and ethnic dynamics are manifest in local residential patterns. These papers were collected in the Community and Family Study Center’s Essays in Human Ecology Series that spanned five volumes from 1976 to 2001. Even as recently as 2009 this prolific scholar produced yet another co-authored volume, Immigration, Internal Migration and Local Mobility in the U.S., keeping very much alive the extraordinary tradition begun 60 years before. In this book, he documents how immigrants are changing neighborhoods and suburban communities and shows that the long-term economic and social adjustment of immigrants is shaped by their skill level and education. In addition to his active research program, Donald Bogue continues to mentor graduate students at the University of Chicago (for instance, this fall he presented a paper on “Current Trends in International Migration: What is Driving Them?” to the Demography Workshop). Donald Bogue continues to be a regular and active participant in the PAA Annual Meeting.