Quantifying COVID-19-related excess mortality in Latin America

Webinar, 17 July 2020

This webinar addressed the challenges of using civil registration data on cause-of-death to quantify excess mortality due to COVID-19. Organized by the IUSSP Panel Population Perspectives and Demographic Methods to Strengthen Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems, the webinar featured the work of colleagues from Latin America.  Everton Lima (University of Campinas, Brazil) presented a co-authored paper based on the collection of monthly civil registration data in Brazil, Peru, Chile and Ecuador analyzing the effects of disease on small areas by comparing mortality in 2018-2019 with 2020. The presentation provided an overview of the pandemic in Latin America and covered data sources and methods as well as preliminary results and issues with data collection in these countries. 

Stephane Helleringer (Johns Hopkins School of Public Health University) and Jenny Garcia (French Institute for Demographic Studies) served as discussants highlighting some of the challenges faced by the team in analyzing COVID-19 death data and estimating excess mortality.  They reviewed issues of completeness of data and regional variation in how cause-of-death data is recorded and reported as well as the quality of that data.  For instance, recent mortality is likely to be underestimated because of delays in reporting compared to data from a year earlier and thus more likely to underestimate excess mortality for more recent periods.

A total of 235 attendees joined from 47 countries with Latin America accounting for 41% of participants and North America 25% of participants. The webinar included a rich Q&A with oral and written responses from Everton and his colleagues in Latin America. Romesh Silva also highlighted the issue of sex differences in death reporting.  

Romesh Silva (UNFPA and Chair of the Panel) moderated the webinar and Montasser Kamal (IDRC), representing the Centre of Excellence on CRVS, provided closing remarks. We thank the panelists for a very stimulating and thought-provoking webinar. The recording will be of value to those working on CRVS and mortality as well as the general public interested in understanding the statistics on COVID deaths reported in the press. 

The webinar programme, video recording, Q&A and presentations are available below. 

Quantifying COVID-19-related excess mortality in Latin America:

  Demographic analyses of death registration data in Latin America

• Q&As

• Everton Lima's presentation file

• Jenny Garcia's discussion file

Description:

The COVID-19 pandemic has considerably affected the mortality numbers of many countries in the world, and Latin America is now considered the epicenter of the disease. One metric to investigate and analyze the impact of the pandemic is to look at excess mortality.

Everton Lima and colleagues at several Brazilian universities and other Latin American centers have collected monthly civil registration data for some of the countries in the region; they analyzed the effects of the disease on small areas by comparing the mortality levels in 2020 with those of 2019.

Everton Lima’s presentation and the discussion led by Jenny Garcia and Stephane Helleringer will be followed by Q&As with the audience.

PRESENTER

   Everton Lima 

   University of Campinas, Brazil

   Member, IUSSP Scientific Panel on Population Perspectives and
   Demographic Methods to Strengthen CRVS Systems

 DISCUSSANTS

   Jenny Garcia

   French Institute for Demographic Studies - INED

MODERATOR

   United Nations Population Fund - UNFPA

   Chair, IUSSP Scientific Panel on Population Perspectives and
   Demographic Methods to Strengthen CRVS Systems

CLOSING REMARKS

   Montasser Kamal 

   Program Leader, Maternal and Child Health, IDRC

This webinar is organized by the IUSSP Panel on Population Perspectives and Demographic Methods to Strengthen Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, in collaboration with the International Development Research Centre (Canada) Centre of Excellence on CRVS Systems.