A ‘recipe for depopulation’? School closures and local population decline in Saxony

A popular notion asserts that closing the last primary school marks the demographic death of a community, because no young parents will stay, much less move in. This notion is frequently voiced but rarely subjected to rigorous analysis. Are school closures a cause or consequence of local decline? This study begins with a comprehensive review of existing research on the relationship between school location and local population decline. Testable hypotheses regarding the link between schooling and local population decline are derived from this review and we go on to analyse methodological problems relating to the empirical analysis of this relationship. Because school closures are partly based on enrollment forecasts, population decline may be a cause rather than a consequence, even if it occurs after the closure. An empirical case study, namely the Eastern Germany province of Saxony for the period 1994--2007, is analysed statistically, explicitly taking into account the endogeneity, based on municipality-level data from the provincial statistical office. In contrast to the prevailing discourse, there is little discernible evidence for an effect of primary school closures on local population decline. This result is discussed in light of prevailing contextual factors such as home ownership.