Depopulation at the subnational level: causes and implications

Besides the knowledge that Colombia was one of Latin America's countries which fastest concentrated its population in urban areas (Kalmanovitz & Lopez, 2006), it was - until 2005 - one of the countries with most cases of forced displacement in the world (CODHES, 2004), and finally, a country which by 2005 had driven out from its territory almost 3 million people (DANE, 2005), what would it be new to state about the dynamics of population mobility in the area? Which regularities could be identified? What could be told from the census data? To what extent theoretical assumptions on migration and development express migratory dynamics in the Colombian case?

This study aims to add to the discussion about different hypotheses on migration levels and tendencies already proposed in the literature, as well as to the discussion about the nature of population exchanges in space (Zelinsky, 1971; Ravenstein, 1980; Singer, 1980, et al). The scope of this study is also to show that the dynamics of internal migration in a developing country, such as Colombia, although adopting major urbanization tendencies that can be identified in other Latin American countries, has particularities which define a distinctive pattern of migration in its territory.

The primary purpose of this presentation is to understand the relationship between population growth and population distribution in a historical context. It will use historical census data from Canada and the United States to document the extent to which urbanization drove regional economic and population growth. This builds on the work of urban economist Edward Glaeser, who argues that urbanization was essential to distinguishing between demographic and economic winners and losers in North America in recent history. Using historical economic data from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada and census data from through the CCRI initiative (Canada) and IPUMS USA, this presentation will identify the extent to which economic growth drove population growth (versus the opposite, or a situation of reciprocal causality).

The purpose of the present paper is to examine the range of policy responses to poverty and population change in high-poverty regions of Germany and the United States. In Germany, many counties in the northeastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Brandenburg experienced substantial population losses after unification, reflecting high rates of unemployment in those areas. All projections point to a continuation of this trend. In the United States, the three poorest regions are Central Appalachia, the lower Mississippi Delta and the Texas Borderland. The paper discusses reasons for why in some regions, population declines in response to unfavorable economic conditions and grows in other regions with similar conditions. It also highlights the changing role of the state over time and its difference between the two countries in explaining the differences in policy responses to poverty and population change in the four regions. The paper closes with a discussion of the implications of these policy differences for the regions.

This paper will describe about the young population declining problem, especially in rural areas in the Amami islands that have an impact on a lack of manpower in the processing of agricultural land. This condition can lead to the occurrence of phenomena depopulation. Related to these issues, The "One Village One Product" or OVOP program has been implemented in Japan including in Kagoshima prefecture. This program has a vision to revitalizing the remote villages, to solve the problem of depopulation due to migration of village youngsters to the big cities for job seeking. Inspired by the successful implementation OVOP in Japan, many Asian countries, including Indonesia, have started to adopt this program since 2009, considering that the depopulation problem also occurs in some rural areas in Indonesia. Experience and best practices that have been carried out in Japan can be used as a learning process. The data sources of this paper are based on the results of a study conducted in July 2011. This study is using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative method approached by an interview with selected informant in the Amami Islands, and quantitative secondary data such as population trend, outmigrations trend.and the employment population trend in Amami Islands.

This paper presents an overview of the disasters of 11 March 2011, focusing on their regional and local contexts, and an assessment of recovery plans. In doing so, it illuminates problems in the planning and reconstruction process, and develops out of these some tentative prognoses. The paper shows that before the disaster the Tōhoku region was already ageing, depopulating, and declining in vitality. Via a case study of two shrinking communities that endured the full force of the tsunami the article shows that there were wide differentials in settlements’ experience of the events according to their geographical and demographic circumstances. The paper then provides a brief analysis of post-disaster reconstruction plans. Although plans show commendable ambition in seeking to rebuild shattered communities, there is a danger of creating unrealistic expectations in settlements where ageing and depopulation appear to be accelerating.

Among western developed countries (WDCs), the ‘Anglo Settler’ Countries (Australasia and North America) are demographically rather deviant cases. They seem to have sustainable positive growth: TFRs that are close to, or even above, replacement; large inflows of migrants effecting migration replacement; and, relatively speaking, more youthful age structures with extreme structural ageing and natural decline arguably a more distant prospect. It seems, therefore, almost an oxymoron to apply the term ‘depopulation’ to their demographic patterns and trends. Yet, if one scratches beneath the surface, demographic sustainability appears less assured; in fact their population dynamics are a variant of the more general model found across the WDCs. Indeed empirical evidence identifies that the shift to zero growth/permanent depopulation has been unfolding across subnational New Zealand and Australia for some time; one region after another passing thresholds beyond which a resumption of natural – then absolute – growth is unlikely. This paper demonstrates the use of a set of such indicators which can be thought of as early warning signals. The sequential passing of these thresholds foreshadows the end of growth for affected regions, and may assist in the development of policies which proactively rather than reactively manage the process.

Natural decrease results from an excess of deaths over births in the population; that is, in a particular time period the population has more deaths than births. Most demographic analyses of natural decrease have been conducted among the counties and subareas of the United States. In this paper we analyze subnational natural decrease among the countries of Europe and the states of the United States. Using data from EUROSTAT (2011) for the subareas of the countries of Europe for the circa 2000-10 time period, we ascertain, country by country, the degree of natural decrease in their respective county-level areas. In Europe, eight of the 22 countries had more than one-half of its counties experiencing natural decrease in the time period. Almost 60 percent of all the counties in Europe experienced natural decrease in the circa 2000-10 period. Of all 3,221 counties in the U.S., almost 27 percent of them experienced natural decrease in the 2000-09 period. In our paper we also report bi-variate analyses of several variables shown in the literature to be significantly associated with natural decrease, e.g., population size, and we make comparisons between the different dynamics of natural decrease in Europe and in the U.S.

Depopulation is feared by European and western countries as it often signals a society in decline. This paper will examine the question of depopulation, decline and demographic ageing in the countries of southern Europe at infra-national level. It will be divided into three parts. First, we will identify the regions affected by depopulation. We will then construct a typology of territories in demographic decline based on changes over time in population numbers by sex and by age group. Last, cartographic analysis will be used to verify whether the depopulation process follows a particular spatial logic.
This study will be based primarily on census data (age-sex structure) collected at various administrative levels in each country of the study region. We will also use base maps available at several infra-national levels. In addition, our theoretical knowledge of territorial grids and the associated problems (MAUP) will help us to establish our own grid and to avoid certain types of bias in our statistical and cartographic analysis.

A popular notion asserts that closing the last primary school marks the demographic death of a community, because no young parents will stay, much less move in. This notion is frequently voiced but rarely subjected to rigorous analysis. Are school closures a cause or consequence of local decline? This study begins with a comprehensive review of existing research on the relationship between school location and local population decline. Testable hypotheses regarding the link between schooling and local population decline are derived from this review and we go on to analyse methodological problems relating to the empirical analysis of this relationship. Because school closures are partly based on enrollment forecasts, population decline may be a cause rather than a consequence, even if it occurs after the closure. An empirical case study, namely the Eastern Germany province of Saxony for the period 1994--2007, is analysed statistically, explicitly taking into account the endogeneity, based on municipality-level data from the provincial statistical office. In contrast to the prevailing discourse, there is little discernible evidence for an effect of primary school closures on local population decline. This result is discussed in light of prevailing contextual factors such as home ownership.