Population and policy challenges in East Asia

This report is aimed at analyzing the policy challenges based on a questionnaire survey for experts to identify the risk factors of population development in China.
Population prediction shows that China will maintain a relatively low fertility level in the future, while the population size would increase steadily in the coming 20 years, accompanying with a continuous and rapid aging.
Fifty experts from different research fields are surveyed to discriminate the risk factors related to population development. It’s accepted by most of the experts that population size is no longer the prominent constraint on China’s economic and social development. Instead, structural problems are becoming more and more obvious. The most worrying concerns are the accelerating population aging, the worsening employment market, the unbalanced sex ratio at birth, the floating population in the process of rapid urbanization.
Policy challenges to population development are discussed, and related policy options are provided with focus on establishing comprehensive decision-making mechanism and promoting sustainable development.

Following the handover, Hong Kong started to have birthright citizenship to Chinese citizens which induced mainland Chinese citizen couples to cross the border to give birth in Hong Kong. From 2003, the young population in Hong Kong was much smaller than the total number of births. This was not because infant mortality increased sharply; it was because most of the children born by mainland Chinese citizen couples were not settling in Hong Kong after their birth. The gap between the number of births and actual young population directly affected the population and economic development in the future. Since Hong Kong had a very low total fertility rate more young population was needed to maintain the active of the society. Although there were a large number of mainland Chinese citizen couples born children who had granted the right of abode in Hong Kong, they did not help the economic development if they did not reside in Hong Kong. Thus, there was a necessary to rethink the population policy of Hong Kong and this paper aimed to discuss the population policy in Hong Kong towards the issue of mainland Chinese citizen couples’ cross border birth.

China's population policy is now at a crossroad. Singapore, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, which are quite similar to China in terms of cultural traditions and policy trajectory, all choose pro-natal policies, yet the results were not satisfactory. The procedures of their policy transition can provide reference for China's policy options.

This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the motivation, process and features of policy change in these countries/regions, explains affecting factors and compares the characteristics and outcomes of population policy before and after the change. On such a basis and combining the realities of China, this paper analyzes the existing barriers to China's population policy change, and suggests China to initiate population change as soon as possible. It also calls for attention paid to the scientificalness and democracy in policy-making, progressivity in policy adjustment and good coordination between policies.

In this study, we examine effects of demographic change on trends in income inequality in Taiwan. Using data pooled from the Surveys of Family Income and Expenditure, we document trends in family income from 1981 to 2000 and decompose effects of the age, education, and marital status of household head, and household size in a quantile-regression counterfactual framework. Results show that age of household head is the major demographic factors contributing to rising income inequality. The effects of these demographic factors mainly come from changes in population composition, rather than changes in the structural return to these factors. In contrast to prior studies focusing on the demand-side of labor-market effects, our study demonstrates the importance of supply-side population composition.

This study examines whether work and family balance differs by the employment status of female workers. Work-family policy benefits are not always entitled to those who are self-employed or family-owned business workers. Whereas well-established welfare states provide self-employed workers with benefits through social insurance plan under certain criteria, other countries do not provide benefits to self-employed workers. In Korea, the self-employed female workers reamin uncovered by work-family policy. While self-employed workers are believed having considerable control over their work, they also experience work-family conflict (Kirkwood & Tootell, 2008; Loscocco, 1997; Parasuraman & Cimmers, 2001). Using the 2010 Korea Family Survey which is a nationally representative data, this study compared the work-family balance of the self-employed (n=135) and the employed (n=226) after controlling individual and work characteristics of the two groups. The results showed that even after controlling for those covariates, the self-employed female workers had lower level of perceived work-family balance than the employed female workers. These results manifest that we need to develop work-family policy for the self-employed or family-employed female workers. They remain uncovered in maternity and parental benefits.

This paper reviews the role of rural medical practitioners in the context of rural healthcare market with special reference to the Indian Sundarbans. It discusses the RMP’s nexus with other providers in the healthcare market. It also shows who visits them, why visit them and their knowledge, attitude and practice. Given the overwhelming dominance of the RMPs in the rural healthcare market, this paper suggests that the RMPs should be incorporated into the formal health system after giving them some training. Incorporation of RMPs into the healthcare system is necessary for the universalization of healthcare services for the poor in the low and middle income countries.

We examines changes in nuptiality and marital fertility as determinants for fertility changes in Singapore for 1980-2010. Singapore has drawn demographers' attentions for intensive population control policies and their effects on fertility. One of the most frequently mentioned policy interventions is a promotion of marriage and its distinct effects by education attainment levels. Ethnic differentials of fertility are also argued as an extent that Chinese females are relatively better educated. Nevertheless, there are few studies directly analyzing either an effect of nuptiality on fertility changes or its ethnic differentials, partly because of a limited data availability.
We estimates multistate lifetables of the 1st marriage and parity specific childbirths by ethnic group each year for 1980-2010 with an efficient use of limited data. Then, we decompose the effects of nuptiality and marital fertility on completed fertility measures constructed from the lifetales. Decomposition results uncover ethnic differentials and similarities: for overall fertility changes for 1980-2010, nuptiality accounted completely for Malay's fertility changes, while both nuptiality and marital fertility affected Chinese fertility; negative nuptiality effects have increasingly impacts both on Malay's and Chinese fertilities in recent years.

This paper presents an overview of the disasters of 11 March 2011, focusing on their regional and local contexts, and an assessment of recovery plans. In doing so, it illuminates problems in the planning and reconstruction process, and develops out of these some tentative prognoses. The paper shows that before the disaster the Tōhoku region was already ageing, depopulating, and declining in vitality. Via a case study of two shrinking communities that endured the full force of the tsunami the article shows that there were wide differentials in settlements’ experience of the events according to their geographical and demographic circumstances. The paper then provides a brief analysis of post-disaster reconstruction plans. Although plans show commendable ambition in seeking to rebuild shattered communities, there is a danger of creating unrealistic expectations in settlements where ageing and depopulation appear to be accelerating.

The burgeoning influx of international residents into Korea has been diversifying the demographic structure as well as increasing the size of the foreign population. This swell in ethnic heterogeneity is a novelty to Korean society which has had homogeneous ethnic-cultural features. The main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of foreign population size on Korean attitudes towards foreigners and heterogeneity of its effect according to the foreigner’s ethnic group. This study hypothesizes that perceptions of threat posed by a larger size of foreign population in a county are likely to increase Korean negative attitudes towards foreigners. Micro-data from the 2010 Korean General Survey and municipal data of foreign residents and Korean citizens in 2009 are analyzed. The effects of the foreign population’s perceptible size on Korean attitudes towards foreigners vary depending on the foreigner’s ethnic group. The primary result in this study shows that greater size of foreign population in a county tends to have more negative effects on Korean acceptance towards Japanese, Korean Chinese, Han Chinese, and Southeast Asians in comparison to the result that foreign population size has a statistically insignificant effect on Korean attitudes towards North Korean defectors, North Americans, and Europeans.

One of the main characteristics of the undeveloped and developing countries is their population youth. In other word about 40% of the total population in these countries is people aged 15 and less. In long time this situation may have negative impacts on the development plans in these countries. There is a meaningful relation between age structure of population and the level of development in countries. In developed countries the portion of people aged 0-14 years to the total population is less than 20% but this figure in some developing and undeveloped countries is about 40%. The results of the National Housing and population Censuses in Iran in 1986 and 1996 show that Iran as a developing country had a young population. In this paper by using economic, social, and cultural indices the levels of developing of 31 provinces in Iran are measured. By considering the index of population youth in the provinces we can discuss the relation existing between level of development and population youth in the provinces. By using economic, social, and cultural indices and Topsis method the level of development in the provinces is measured and the population youth weight is determined by using Wertheim Test.

Keywords: Development index, Province, People youth,