Is fertility Stall in Indian States true or it is just a mirage?

The experience of it in different states of India are diverge we have identified 14 states that has indication of fertility stalling. The specific objective are
Reconstructions of fertility trends adjusting omission and displacements using birth history of 14 Indian states
Identify true and spurious stalls in different states by fitting autoregressive-dummy variable regression
Propose a suitable model for forecasting TFR using using Box-Jenkins methodology.
We have pooled three rounds of DHS birth history files and converted it to “person period” files to apply Poisson regression model to arrive at the long terms fertility trend adjusted for displacement and omission (Schoumker, 2008).
Ln(mi)=ln(t) +f(age) + g(time)+ O(i)+DB(i)+DA(i); where i=1, 2, 3 three rounds of DHS.
We have applied dummy variable regression with autoregressive component to identify stall period
〖TFR〗_t=α_0+α_1 〖TFR〗_(t-2) +α_(2 ) D_( t )+α_3 〖(D〗_( t ) 〖TFR〗_(t-2) )+∪_t
Finally, the ARIMA (p, q, r) model is used for projecting the future level of fertility. The model suggests that the current as well as forecasted value of TFR is substantially higher than the projected TFR by the Technical Group.
The policy implication that may lead to lack of adequate focus on family planning program is also assed in the paper.