Any prospects of fertility recovery in low-fertility societies?

Estimation of fertility level in Nigeria is discussed in this study using the indirect estimation technique by Reverse Survival method. This technique was applied to data from censuses and surveys for Nigeria to obtain the Crude Birth Rates used for discussion on the 1963, 1991, 2006 censuses; 1991 Post Enumeration Survey (PES), 1981/82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS) AND 1990, 1999, 2003 AND 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. The results of the analyses reveal that even although the data reported in the Nigerian censuses and surveys are a little bit poor in quality, fertility level in Nigeria seem to be declining at a very slow rate and it is however considerably high in relation to the levels of other developing and developed countries. Policy and programme implementation aimed at improving access and utilization of sexual reproductive health services, should therefore ensure specific focus by zone, state, age groups, urban/rural places of residence, marital status, level of education and literacy, wealth. A “one size fit all” approach for Family Planning programming should be discouraged.

The fertility level implied by the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data has been discussed in this paper using both the reported and adjusted current and life-time fertility measures. The Brass P/F ratio method and Brass Relational Gompertz model were applied to obtain estimates of age-specific fertility rates(ASFRs) and total fertility rate(TFRs) used for the discussions. The 2008 NDHS data were used to discuss the current fertility level and age pattern in Nigeria. The 1990, 1999 and 2003NDHS data were used in combination with the 2008 NDHS data to discuss the fertility trend in Nigeria, while comparing them with data from some selected countries of the world. The results of the analyses show that the fertility level in Nigeria is high when compared with the fertility levels in the developed and some developing countries. However, there are indications that it is declining though at a slow pace. There are indications also that the true level and trend of fertility in Nigeria may be confounded by the intra-national differences in levels and trend. Effective family planning service delivery and empowerment of women economically and academically have been recommended as a way of improving the pace of fertility decline.

We examine the effects of community fertility levels on women’s education in South Africa, conceptualizing community fertility as a socio-cultural construct with bearing on individual outcomes. This paper contributes to the recent assertion that fertility decline may be a catalyst for women’s empowerment. We examine the effects of community fertility levels for older women on educational attainment for younger women as compared to younger men through two outcomes: 1) highest educational level attained for 25-29 year olds; and 2) grade for age for 14-18 year olds. We use data from the South African Community Survey (2007). We expect that lagged community fertility will be more strongly associated with women’s as compared to men’s educational attainment when controlling for indivudal, household and other socio-economic community-level effects. We do not find this to be the case for completed education, but do find this to be the case for grade for age models. We discuss the implications of our findings for our conceptualization of community fertility; as well as the implications for the intersections between gender, population and development in sub-Saharan Africa.

Until recently to talk about childlessness in Brazil would not find sound research grounds. Since 2005 the country has reached fertility replacement level and the newest estimates indicate that fertility continues its decline path, from 1.9 in 2010 and falling to 1.7 in 2011. Fertility schedule is diverse when compared to countries because childbearing starts early and stops also early in women’s life. In such low fertility regimes it would be expected that a high percentage of women retreat from childbearing as in several European countries. However, in average in 2010, 13% of women aged 40-49, that is, women born between 1961 and 1970, at the beginning of fertility transition, did not have any children, a figure much lower than most European countries. On the other hand, given the high inequality present in almost all socioeconomic indicators, childlessness is very different for well educated and low-educated women, for wealthier and poor . The objective of this paper is to analyze the tendencies on childlessness in Brazil looking at the socioeconomic and regional differences in order to advance some hypothesis to the future level of fertility in Brazil. The question we try to answer is whether Brazil will become a childless society or only some segments of the population will be under such regime.

The aim of this paper is to compare the fertility differentials between internal fixed-date migrants and non-migrants in Brazil, in the periods 1995-2000 and 2005-2010, and to discuss the probable effects of the women’s migration in reproductive ages on the process of demographic transition in the country. The Brass’s Method will be used to correct the levels of fertility of fixed date immigrants and non-migrants in both periods. The data used in the estimations will be collected in the Brazilian demographic census of 2000 and 2010.
Preliminary results of the study for 12 mesoregions of Brazilian state of Minas Gerais suggest that there is relevant difference between the fertility of internal fixed-date migrant and non-migrant women for the analyzed periods. This fact could have contributed to retard the demographic transition in all mesoregions of the state, compared with the speed that this process would have in the absence of migration. Considering these preliminary results, to analyze the fertility differentials between migrant and non-migrant women could contribute to the understanding of the demographic transition in Brazil.

Few European countries such as France, Belgium or Denmark still report cohort fertility rates close to 2.0, while in the bordering German-speaking countries the CFR-levels are only at 1.6 children. These differences are usually explained by disparities in social norms and social policies, whose influence is difficult to isolate due to their mutual interdependence. Our study aims to disentangle them by analyzing a quasi-natural experiment. After WWI two German districts were ceded to Belgium. The population retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian policies. We use (micro)-census data to compare the fertility of the Belgian German minority with data for western Germany and the Flemish- and French-speaking population of Belgium. Our findings indicate that the fertility outcomes of the Belgian German minority resemble more the Belgian than the German pattern. This provides support for the view that institutional factors are relevant for understanding fertility differences between Belgium and Germany.

I have proposed a marital fertility measure, ETFR or ever-married total fertility, defined by TFR／TFMR，where TFR is the total fertility rate, and TFMR the total first marriage rate（Hirosima and Bando,1991; Ohtani,1993). Using this measure, the decomposition of the increase in the TFRs from 2005(1.26) to 2010 (1.39) shows that 90.9 percent of the increase is accounted for by the increase in the first marriage rate and only 9.1 percent by that in marital fertility.
The upturn of the first marriage rate by age occurred not only at 30's but also at the latter half of 20's of women, which suggests not only the recuperation but also a change in marriage market, considering the everlasting deteriorating economic situation.
The increase in the first marriage rate is more remarkable in large metropolitan areas and in south west Japan where the traditional gender role model prevails less. The regional aspect of marriage rate increase provides another evidence of the marriage market change.
The economic situation has been breaking the conventional male breadwinner model, and women earning higher income are getting favorable situation rather than unfavorable one. This can be one of the main causes of marriage hence fertility increase in Japan.

Though the fertility transition has taken place in almost every state, the population of India is increasing fast. During 2001-11, about 181 Millions of people were added to the country. Madhya Pradesh is second in terms of its geographical spread (308,244 sq. km.) and the total population is 72,597,565 according to 2011 census. This paper is attempted to examine the change in proximate determinants of fertility, age at marriage, induced abortion, contraceptive use and post-partum amenorrhea, among literate and illiterate women in Madhya Pradesh. The study used data from various sources such as the Sample Registration System (SRS), the National Family health surveys (NFHS1 and NFHS 3), District Level Household Surveys (DLHS 1, DLHS2 and DLHS 3) and census of India. The Bongaarts model is used to examine the contribution of proximate determinants on fertility. It was found that a 19.4% reduction in TFR was observed during 2001 to 2010. However, marriage contributed 1% increase with respect to change in TFR among illiterate women compared to 3% decline among literate women. Contraceptive use has contributed 27% decline in TFR among illiterate women compared to 12% among literate women. Induced abortion has contributed 1% increase with respect to change in TFR among illiterate women compared to 4% increase among literate women.

Researchers have intensively demonstrated the socioeconomic inequalities in fertility everywhere in the World. There are however limited researches on the causal effects of distance to facilities on fertility. This paper uses unique longitudinal data collected in three rural districts of Tanzania to test whether enhanced proximity to health services can reduce inequalities in fertility between rich and poor. Data on births, deaths, migrations, SES and geographic data on households and facilities have been recorded every 120 days since 1999 (n≈200,000). We will use multivariate analysis to measure the causal effects of distance to health facilities on fertility and to test interactions between distance to health facilities and maternal education and households’ SES. Initial results indicate that, from 2000 to 2010, TFR remains high around 5.3 births per woman with significant differences between poor (6.4) and rich (3.4) and between educated (2.9) and not educated (5.9). The distance to the closest health facility remained a strong determinant of fertility, even after adjusting for endogeneity biases. The development of community-based primary health care can improve health outcomes and can increase equity by offsetting the detrimental effects of low maternal education, household poverty and distance to health facilities.

The lack of reliable data on political conflict and the difficulties of properly measure fertility decisions under social and economic disruption make of the estimation of effects of conflict over fertility one of the most difficult questions within the Demography of Conflict. We propose a methodology that can be implemented for countries under conflict with access to Demographic and Health Surveys, combined with a good proxy for political violence, by applying multiple generalized equations. We present the results for the Colombian case that combines the retrospective information from DHS 2005 and 2010, homicides by age and sex and population counts per municipality from DANE (Colombia´s official statistical office ) and records of outlaw and army/police initiated armed actions collected by Humans Rights Observatory of Presidency of Colombia (HROPC). As a result we found that there are differential effects by residence (rural vs. urban) and over time, as the conflict has reduced its intensity in the decade under study, and more importantly opposite direction on the effects whether the violence was caused by an intervention by outlaw armed groups or official groups.