Social Norms, Family Polices and Fertility Trends: Insights from a Comparative Study on the German-speaking Region in Belgium

Few European countries such as France, Belgium or Denmark still report cohort fertility rates close to 2.0, while in the bordering German-speaking countries the CFR-levels are only at 1.6 children. These differences are usually explained by disparities in social norms and social policies, whose influence is difficult to isolate due to their mutual interdependence. Our study aims to disentangle them by analyzing a quasi-natural experiment. After WWI two German districts were ceded to Belgium. The population retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian policies. We use (micro)-census data to compare the fertility of the Belgian German minority with data for western Germany and the Flemish- and French-speaking population of Belgium. Our findings indicate that the fertility outcomes of the Belgian German minority resemble more the Belgian than the German pattern. This provides support for the view that institutional factors are relevant for understanding fertility differences between Belgium and Germany.