Long-term determinants of Latin American migration. A macro panel study for the period 1975-2010

Latin American and The Caribbean outmigration coincided with the onset of the Demographic Transition for some countries, but little is known on how both processes are related. To what extent natural growth did contribute in explaining net migration´s trend? What other processes could have inhibited its impact on international mobility?

Country level data from UN Population Division, World Bank and the Quality of Governance Institute was organized into a macro-panel, where 16 countries were followed up from 1975 to 2010. A multivariate linear model with fixed effects and interactions, to account for demographic inhibitors, such as urbanization, industrialization or increase in productivity, was estimated.

Similar to what has been found for the Trans-Saharan migration system, natural increase has a negative and significant effect on net migration´s evolution, even while other processes are going on. Urbanization significantly inhibited the effect of natural increase on net migration, up to four times, but this was not the case for productivity increase or for industrialization.