Using Systematic Anomalous Case Analysis to Inform Theories of Fertility: A Case Study from Cebu, Philippines

Systematic anomalous case analysis (SACA) is a form of mixed-method research in which existing data are used to identify and conduct subsequent examination of cases that do not exhibit the expected behavior, for the purpose of refining social theories and measurement strategies. Using intergenerational longitudinal cohort data from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS) in the Philippines, we used social contextual variables (household, peer, family, and young adults’ demographics and sexual attitudes) from adolescents who participated in the 1998 survey to predict the number of living children they reported by 2009 (ages 25-26). We then calculate Pearson’s residuals to identify statistical outliers (anomalous cases) from the multivariate, gender-disaggregated models. In the next phase of this study to be conducted in Spring 2013, we will conduct in-depth interviews with a subsample of these anomalous cases, as well as normative cases, to identify ways in which subsequent investigations and data collection instruments may better theorize and measure fertility among young adults in this and other settings.