Longevity and shift in morbidity pattern among states in India

The present paper has explored the possible shift in age-sex structure and morbidity pattern among the population of India and states by 2051. “Morbidity and health care” schedule of NSSO 60th round survey, projected population and SRS reports have been used for analysis purpose. LEB for males and females will increase by 10 and 11years respectively during 2006-51. Proportion of elderly will increase at a rapid pace younger population will decline rather slowly. Age specific morbidity prevalence increases slowly for communicable diseases but the pace is much higher for non-communicable diseases. Disease burden shifts towards NCDs with the change in age structure, which shows some of the states facing NCDs as 3/4th of their disease burden. The shift in the disease burden calls for an urgent need for investment in health infrastructure as most of the NCDs are chronic in nature and seeks long term care.