Early warning signs and implications of non- metropolitan population loss in Anglo Settler Countries

Among western developed countries (WDCs), the ‘Anglo Settler’ Countries (Australasia and North America) are demographically rather deviant cases. They seem to have sustainable positive growth: TFRs that are close to, or even above, replacement; large inflows of migrants effecting migration replacement; and, relatively speaking, more youthful age structures with extreme structural ageing and natural decline arguably a more distant prospect. It seems, therefore, almost an oxymoron to apply the term ‘depopulation’ to their demographic patterns and trends. Yet, if one scratches beneath the surface, demographic sustainability appears less assured; in fact their population dynamics are a variant of the more general model found across the WDCs. Indeed empirical evidence identifies that the shift to zero growth/permanent depopulation has been unfolding across subnational New Zealand and Australia for some time; one region after another passing thresholds beyond which a resumption of natural – then absolute – growth is unlikely. This paper demonstrates the use of a set of such indicators which can be thought of as early warning signals. The sequential passing of these thresholds foreshadows the end of growth for affected regions, and may assist in the development of policies which proactively rather than reactively manage the process.