Transformation of family and fertility behaviour in Baltic countries - comparison with Europe 1960-2005

The changes in demographic behavior of different countries and factors influencing them have always been objects of theoretical discussions. Due to small population size in Baltic countries the depopulation as a result of low birthrate, short life expectancy and emigration form an existential problem.
We use several methods of multivariate statistics to get more visible picture of demographic processes characterizing demographic transitions and to group the countries with the aim to identify the situation of Baltic countries among all other European countries. As a result of Factor Analysis three well interpretable factors were found. Next we used the factors to discover the demographic behaviour patterns and types that characterize European countries in different time periods since 1960’s. As result the K-means method four groups were formed describing different types of demographic behaviour that characterise European countries in 45-years time perspective. In their demographic development the countries move from one type to another, there were totally 83 transition acts during ten 5-years period, in average each country passed during 45 years 2 transitions. Our hypothesis: the demographic development of Baltic countries follows the regularities of Northern Europe with restrictions caused by historical conditions.