Exploring the tempo-quantum interplay in the period fertility trends in India

The postponement or advancement of births increases or decreases mean age at childbearing which in turn, distorts period TFR. This is true for any population undergoing fertility transition. However, despite the ubiquity of strong evidences of postponement of births across countries, research so far on tempo effects is disproportionately focused on developed nations with almost neglected focus in the developing countries. In attempt to fulfill this research gap, this study examines role of the tempo effects in period fertility trends in India. Using merged birth histories of three rounds of NFHS (19992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06), in this paper, we estimated fertility trends and the mean ages at child bearing by birth orders for the past 25 years (1981-2006) in India. Results indicate that cumulated fertility before age 40 in India declined from around 4.5 to 2.7 during 1981-2006 with urban fertility levels being lower than rural areas. Fertility trends by birth order show that fertility declined for all births orders with relatively higher decline for higher order births. The mean age at first birth increased by almost 0.82 years with urban areas showing an increase of 1.1 years during 1981-2006. Results reveal considerable tempo distortions in the period TFRs in India which are more pronounced since 1990s.