Analyzing Fertility Trends and Future Prospect through Gompertz Model in Bihar State of India

Several Indian states have achieved or on the way of achieving the replacement level fertility, but the performance of Bihar are far from this. Accordingly, this paper attempts to assess the level and trends of fertility in across districts and examines determinants of fertility and its future prospect. Results: TFR is slow decline among districts but yet some districts have high TFR and substantial differences across the socio-economic groups. Contraceptive prevalence rate is marginal differs across the groups in the state. The percentage change TFR is more in developed region (one district) compare least developed region. The developed region has performed better than other regions in case program factors. Result of Gompertz Model indicates that rate of decline in TFR is decelerate after 1997, Low literacy. Low urbanization preceding poverty are the other important factors, which may be the cause for decelerate. Replacement level fertility will be achieved by 2035.