Abstract
Since 1999 IBGE – the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics – is annually publishing mortality tables for the Brazilian population, according to gender and age, the first table in the series being published in 1980. The latest 2011 mortality table is due at the end of 2012 and will crucially include data from the latest 2010 Brazilian Census. Census data in Brazil is collected once in a decade and therefore the latest data are important to update any past study that involved extrapolation in the future.
In this work we use past data and the latest census data to run an analysis of Brazilian life-expectancy using the Lee-Carter model. Such model allows to forecast a trend in life expectancy as well as to estimate probability intervals for deviations from the trend, using a stochastic factor. The data we obtain can be used for scenario analysis and policy making.
We also develop a free computer based tool to run the Lee-Carter model analysis from a given set of mortality table inputs.
In this work we use past data and the latest census data to run an analysis of Brazilian life-expectancy using the Lee-Carter model. Such model allows to forecast a trend in life expectancy as well as to estimate probability intervals for deviations from the trend, using a stochastic factor. The data we obtain can be used for scenario analysis and policy making.
We also develop a free computer based tool to run the Lee-Carter model analysis from a given set of mortality table inputs.
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Event ID
17
Session 2
Paper presenter
56 117
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1