Why African Fertility Declines Must Be Demand Driven

This paper considers prospects for fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa in light of existing fertility desires, as captured in recent household-level surveys conducted from the 1970s to the present (ideal number of children, desire for another child). We show that pre-transition and at the onset of transition, fertility desires are noticeably higher in Africa than in other major regions (Asia, Latin America). We also examine recent trends in fertility desires, with a focus on countries that have already experienced some fertility decline. The analysis proceeds to divide fertility is into wanted and unwanted components, and simulations of further fertility decline are carried out. From these it is clear that existing fertility desires are incompatible with a fall in fertility to low levels (i.e. TFR<4.0), leading to the conclusion that African fertility declines in a fundamental sense will be demand-driven. The paper concludes with commentary on strategies for lowering fertility desires, with particular attention to the potential causal impact on fertility desires of expansion of family planning services. We stress that while such an impact is very plausible on theoretical grounds, the empirical evidence that this occurs remains weak.