Climate change and population growth as causes of resource constraints and insecurity

In public statements and in academic research, the concept of “climate change” is being used to explain a wide range of social and economic problems, which are deemed to result from shifts in weather patterns. Climate change is also often linked to insecurity, forced migration, and conflict.

The causal chain for these claims involves resource constraints, which are placed at the base of a chain of events leading to rising insecurity. However, in many studies which claim to investigate the negative consequences of climate change, little evidence is presented about changes in weather patterns which are under way. Likewise, the role of other elements which limit resources available per capita is frequently ignored, even though population increase—leading to intensification of land use, as well as erosion and overgrazing—would have similar effects.

This paper looks at the discourse and approach to investigating the links between climate change and demographic factors, on the one hand, and the impact they have on security, on the other. It addresses the science, perceptions and myths surrounding the current debate on the security implications of global climate change, and compares this to views about the consequences of population growth in the past fifty years.