Climate change and population growth as causes of resource constraints and insecurity

Abstract
In public statements and in academic research, the concept of “climate change” is being used to explain a wide range of social and economic problems, which are deemed to result from shifts in weather patterns. Climate change is also often linked to insecurity, forced migration, and conflict.

The causal chain for these claims involves resource constraints, which are placed at the base of a chain of events leading to rising insecurity. However, in many studies which claim to investigate the negative consequences of climate change, little evidence is presented about changes in weather patterns which are under way. Likewise, the role of other elements which limit resources available per capita is frequently ignored, even though population increase—leading to intensification of land use, as well as erosion and overgrazing—would have similar effects.

This paper looks at the discourse and approach to investigating the links between climate change and demographic factors, on the one hand, and the impact they have on security, on the other. It addresses the science, perceptions and myths surrounding the current debate on the security implications of global climate change, and compares this to views about the consequences of population growth in the past fifty years.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
55 799
Type of Submissions
Regular session only
Language of Presentation
English
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Effects of economic growth and population in Brazilian Amazon region

Abstract
Improvements in the business environment in Amazonas State, which is located in the northern region of Brazil, have been strongly supported by federal and state actions such as credit increases and incentives to more dynamism in the retail, agricultural and industrial sectors. Consequently, the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shown a continuous growth path since 2003, when its performance started to improve relative to national average. However, it is necessary to examine whether the living conditions of the local population agree with the precepts of sustainable development. This means that better infrastructure and local economic dynamism can generate much better living conditions and income for the population as can stimulate the predatory use of natural resources and deepening inequalities socioeconomic and environmental impacts from the growth model adopted by the region. This paper aims to analyze the living conditions of the population in Calha do Purus (sub region of Amazon state) in 2010.


Keywords: population, sustainable development, Amazon region, living condition
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
52 990
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Urbanization, food consumption patterns and population growth: challenges for the use of natural resources in México and Brazil

Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to discuss the relationship between population growth, rising living standards, food consumption patterns, urbanization and the trends in the use of water in the two most populous countries in Latin America: Brazil and Mexico. Although it only comprises 8% of the global population, Latin America constitutes an ideal case to observe population changes, with 79.1% of the population is living in cities (UN, 2011). Cities in this continent show a rate of expansion surpassing the rate of population growth; and the trend is projected to continue in the coming decades, which will increase competition for land, water and other natural resources. Besides, significant changes in consumption patterns have been observed over the last decades, along with the growth of the middle class in many countries across the region. By 2050 population growth and the increasing living standards in much of the world will contribute to increasing food demand by 70%. Latin American countries are most likely going to play a vital role in food production and need to asses important natural resources trade-offs.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
56 184
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Demographic Transition and Transition of Water Consumption in Brazil

Abstract
The aim of this paper is to show that, first, the issue of population volume is rather important. That is, we cannot deny that a greater number of people require greater investment in terms of infrastructure and basic services, what is necessary even to reduce social vulnerability to climate change. However, due to the demographic transition, population growth in the country is close to its end.
However, on the other hand, there are other aspects to be considered in the relationship between people and environment, such as consumption of the population. Two of the most important aspects of consumption are the standard (how to consume) and the level (how much to consume). Thus, a small population, but with a high level of consumption may cause significant environmental impact.
The hypothesis we try to demonstrate is that the consumption pattern, conditioned by economic capacity, can be the deciding factor in increased demand on resources. To develop this argument we use the specific case of water consumption, showing the main aspects involved in the increased consumption of this essential good, in the Brazilian urban context.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
48 784
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Human Migration and Extreme Events: Tracing the Impacts of Environmental and Economic Shocks in the United States

Abstract
Current models of environment-population interactions are static, large scale, and fail to capture the relative importance of environmental events for human populations. To address these limitations, I analyze migration trends for selected US counties experiencing extreme environmental events and economic shocks. Using a unique data set that covers the 60-year period between 1950 and 2010, I focus on the overall magnitude and the age and race dimensions of migration "signatures" that characterize migration trends.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
51 348
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
2
Status in Programme
1

Social and Health Issues of Water Access in an Urban Area: Rethinking the MDG indicator. A case study in Ouagadougou’s informal settlements (Burkina Faso)

Abstract
In terms of water access, sub-Saharan African cities are some of the worst off in the world, with 20 % of their populations supplied by an unimproved water source. This situation is even worst in informal settlements. In light of the expected growth of urban populations, there is concern that the gap between the supply and demand for clean water will widen. At first glance, Ouagadougou, the capital city of Burkina Faso, portrays a counter example since 99 % of the residents having access to an improved water source. Yet, by going beyond the single statistical measure of supply and more precisely providing for the means of water accessibility (i.e. the distance, the time taken to collect water, the quantity and the quality of the water consumed, etc.), we can argue that the indicator using in the MDG target hugely underestimates the need for water accessibility and the persistent social and health issues relate thereto.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
48 813
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
French
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

CASSAVA AND WOMEN EMPOWERMENT

Abstract
Cassava is a staple food of over forty million people, half of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa. Cassava has gained its importance due to its ability to yield well especially under adverse environmental conditions. Cassava is a crop which is cultivated principally by women. The money gotten from the sale of cassava is mostly managed by women. It is often used in buying household needs and any spare is usually kept in njangi houses. The qualitative approach was used in collecting data through content analysis of books written from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century in Africa and Cameroon especially on the importance of cassava as a source of food security and a boost to empower women. Results show that even though female farmers are still using the traditional learning by doing approach, they are also now adopting mew innovational agricultural practices.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
56 433
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

The Domestic Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in dealing with Climate Change:Case Study Agriculture Region - Plantation and Urban Areas

Abstract
For the last couple of years the impact of climate change have been experienced by most Indonesians. This phenomenon is not only effected the shifting of the weather patterns: the rainy and dry seasons, but also significantly influences the deflation of agriculture-plantation production due to plant/crop failure. Another interesting finding is that the urban communities also experience the effects of this phenomenon; people begin to deal with health issues related to climate change.
The response and the adaptation strategies that are exhibited by people who live in the agriculture-plantation and the urban areas in order to deal with climate change are quite varied. It is affected by the vulnerability and the capacity to adapt that are different in each community. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of writings in Indonesian context yet that focus deeply on the phenomenon of the climate change. In accordance with this matter, there are two issues that need to be highlighted in this paper: (1). The knowledge and understanding of both the farming and the urban communities on the climate change phenomenon particularly its impact on their daily lives, (2). The adaptation strategies that both the farmers and the urban communities do to address the arising issues caused by climate change.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
56 379
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

What makes country developed?

Abstract
At the present time in the post-soviet states are in the process of transformation from command to market economy. From one side this process is going in the terms of the changes in the previous system and from another side it is creation of new economic systems. The globalization of the world economy influence a lot on the above mentioned processes. After independence, former USSR republic became the full participants of the world economic activities and they are able to decide their own direction of development and priorities for the partnership with other countries.
The present work is aimed at analyzing the main important issues for sustainable population development. Starting from the question I wanted to highlight the importance of the raised in the paper issues.

In order to understand “what makes country developed” I decided to analyze the data of 6 countries with different HDI, but with preliminary same amount of population. The main idea of sustainable human development – is development human centered.
Paper analyses:
1) Importance of time for development (I started from analysis of history of the countries)
2) Social indexes and resource and role of them in population development
3) Financial systems as a factor of population development
4) Human capital for sustainable population development

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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
51 662
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Is climate change induced migration only a scarecrow? A conceptual and empirical analysis

Abstract
In this study, we analyze the effects of climate changes on migration through a conceptual analysis applied to a specific case study. In the first part, we conduct a conceptual analysis by integrating demographic/social sciences models of migration with models and information derived from climate sciences. In the second part, we conduct an empirically driven analysis on the case of Senegal. A developing country, with a relatively large diaspora, Senegal is expected to experience sea level increase, changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate changes. To estimate the changes in temperature and precipitation we use Climate Wizard at 0.5 degrees with all available models and the three scenarios downscaled at the country level. For sea level increases, we use Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) global estimates for upper/lower limits combined with an estimate of local subsidence for Senegal. In order to estimate a migration model, we use World Bank survey on migration and remittances in Senegal (2009).
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
53 004
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1