Contrasting fertility patterns and explanations: East Asia compared with other low-fertility regions

South Korea experienced below replacement fertility for the first time in 1983, which continued to decline over the next 20 years until it reached 1.2 in 2003 and has remained at that level ever since. In spite of recent pronatalist policies such as Saero-Maji and Vision 2020, fertility has not increased, at least not as of 2012. The reasons for sustained low fertility in South Korea are complex and solutions remain elusive. One option that has been suggested is that reunification with North Korea could solve the eventual decline in the population.

This paper examines current fertility and mortality trends in the two Koreas and prepares population projections for 2020-2050 for a reunified country. Although the conditions surrounding the German reunification experience were vastly different than what Korea will likely experience, it is informative to look at Germany as a guide to the demographic parameters of reunification.

Projections from KOSIS and data from the 2008 North Korea census are used for this analysis. Three models are presented, using three sets of assumptions. Even the highest fertility models show that reunification will not be the answer to population restructuring already underway in South Korea as a result of sustained low fertility.