Migrant aspirations and strategies

According to Carling’s “aspiration-ability” model, the distinction between aspirations and abilities allows us to differentiate between two categories of non-migrants: people aspiring to migrate but lacking the required abilities (“involuntary non-migrants”), and people not aspiring to migrate (“voluntary non-migrants”). Discourses, perceptions, and migratory and geographical imaginations might have an impact on aspirations. We ask whether the economic crisis in Europe and its consequences on the conditions of migrants might change the aspirations of non-migrants. In times of crisis, involuntary non-migrants might become voluntary ones, considering immobility as a better alternative to migrating to Europe with uncertain working and living conditions. The EUMAGINE project investigates the impact of perceptions of human rights and democracy on the migration aspirations and decisions of 18–39-year-olds in Turkey, Morocco, Senegal and the Ukraine. The survey and in-depth interviews included questions on perceptions of life in Europe, international migration aspirations and discourses. This paper will present results of the data gathered in 4 research areas in Morocco: the Togdha Valley, the Central Plateau, Tangier and the Eastern High Atlas. More specifically, it will explore changing aspirations among non-migrants in these areas.

International migration has been a vital aspect of labor markets in the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA), particularly Egypt. Egypt is among the largest ten remittance-receiving countries in the world (Wahba 2007). The primary objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of migration intentions among youth in Egypt. Studying factors shaping development of migration intentions is important to understanding the migration decision process and predicting future migration flows. I use a recently fielded survey on adolescents and youth: the 2009 Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE). Based on SYPE, one in three young men in the age group 15-29 expressed willingness/intention to migrate. I found that having a migrant on one’s social network is one of the key factors in developing migration aspirations. The wealthiest youth are more likely to want to migrate to the West. Worrying about future prospects generally is a push-factor.

This study explores the influence of vulnerability on migration intentions within the context of Afghanistan. While it is commonplace to conceptualize migration as being driven by certain economic-related factors, in a fragile setting like Afghanistan the difference between voluntary and involuntary movement is not easily distinguishable, making it necessary to approach the subject through a spectrum which does not presuppose migration is strictly economic in nature. With this in mind, we consider the issue through the broader lens of household vulnerability, a measure which incorporates a range of socio-economic factors allowing for a more comprehensive analysis. We first construct a profile of household vulnerability through individual indicators of deprivation along four principle dimensions, and then perform a regression analysis estimating the influence on migration intentions. Our results provide evidence that vulnerable households have a lower likelihood of concrete plans to migrate. This result supports the suggestion that it is not the “poorest of the poor”, or in our case the “most vulnerable of the vulnerable” who aspire to move, indicating households have a realistic understanding of their possibilities taking into consideration the inherent costs and risks associated with cross-border movement.

The study investigates the socioeconomic and demographic causes and consequences of irregular migration of youth from southern Ethiopia to South Africa. The sample includes 658 eligible young adults aged 15 to 50. A quantitative cross-sectional survey was carried out on Feb. 2010. Data are gathered from four randomly selected local districts and then households from two zones in southern Ethiopia using questionnaire, interviews and discussions. The irregular migration is dominated by young single male aged 20 to 34. The majority of the smuggled migrants are first or second born children. Age, residence and employment status have a significant positive association with migration while sex, marital status, education, duration of residence and birth order have a significant negative association. Household size and ethnicity are found to be insignificant. Over 44% of the respondents view the main cause for the irregular migration to be perceived better opportunities in South Africa and only 8% of them claimed poverty. The migration is facilitated by a network of smugglers in Addis Ababa, Hossana or other towns in Ethiopia and they work in cooperation with several smugglers from Kenya and Somalia. Return migrants are better off now than before migration. Many of the smuggled migrants faced harsh & unexpected negative consequences.