New approaches to the collection and analysis of data on mortality and cause-of-death

This paper presents life expectancy forecasts for 159 countries explicitly assuming mortality convergence. We develop a model that takes into account country-specific heterogeneity in life expectancy historical trajectories, between-countries heterogeneity across gains and uncertainty through experts’ based arguments (Lutz et al., 2001). The relevant literature has focused on forecasting mortality for a single population. Exception to this rule is the work by Li and Lee (2005) where the authors develop mortality forecasts that take into account patterns in a larger group using the Lee-Carter model.
Torri and Vaupel (2012) argue that life expectancy in different countries tends to be positively correlated and forecast life expectancies in individual countries by forecasting the best-practice level and the gap between the national performance and the best-practice level. We build upon their work by varying the speed of convergence, taking into account differential rates of linear increase in life expectancy across group of countries.

In countries where the registration of deaths remains incomplete, the main sources of data on mortality are retrospective reports collected on the survival of close relatives. Birth and sibling histories are known to be plagued by recall errors but few methods exist to detect these errors. This paper introduces two simple approaches to assess the consistency between sibling histories and reports on the fertility of the previous generation. A comparison between the average size of sibships and the mean number of children ever born (CEB) to women of the previous generation indicates that a large proportion of siblings is omitted in Demographic and Health Surveys. On average the reported sibsizes are about 15 percent lower than expected from data on CEB. Discrepancies between reported and expected sibsizes are larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions and they increase with the age of respondents. Second, a linkage of sibling histories reported by young women aged 15-18 with birth histories of their mothers when they live in the same household highlights frequent inconsistencies between mother's and daughter's reports on members of the same family. Daughters tend to report fewer siblings than expected from their mother's birth history, but more adult deaths.

The Brazilian Northeast is historically considered one of the least developed regions of Lain America. It features deficient vital statistics, which hinders the ability of management and development of public health policies. Aiming at identifying explanatory factors of life conditions and vulnerability of the major causes of mortality of elderly women by cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the northeastern of Brazil in 2010, an ecological study was carried out in 188 northeastern micro regions. The population data was taken from Census 2010 and mortality data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Two models were compared and the outcome variable mortality rate due to CVD was directly observed in model-1 and estimated by four major underlying causes in model-2. The Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) used showed better adjustments to final model-1, with significance in the measurement model for the indicators – years of study, percentage of elderly women living in homes with bathroom and water supply, probability of living to 60 years old – and fit indicators of the structural model. The SEM proved to be highly sensitive.

Human and his health are affected by various environmental factors that establish human's environment.The effective environmental factors on human's health are descriptive and observable by spatial models and also it is possible to study to how they affect on human's health, understanding mutual reaction between these factors. Both of data from satellite and geographical information system are modern implements that are very powerful to show characteristics of natural environment and also to consider such diseases as Aleppo boil.The number of calculated infected cases to Aleppo boil in the world is thought to be 12 million people and 35 million are facing the danger of getting infected. The main aim is to analysis spatiality of relation between herbal coverage and Aleppo boil in hot and dry regions, by using Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing.
The final aims of this paper are: (a) Recognizing of the high risk regions exposed to Aleppo boil disease.(b) Using some of the advanced techniques of Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing and making political recommendations for monitoring Aleppo boil disease and policy debate for upcoming health challenges in the World.

The research focused on 50 deceased Nigerian women of low socioeconomic status in different locations of the country with some common characteristics. Primary data were generated mainly through verbal autopsy with widowers employing In-depth Interviews (IDIs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs). In addition, unobtrusive observation was carried out in these locations to ascertain in some instances the distance between the deceased homes and the health facilities patronised for antenatal, delivery and/or postnatal care. Secondary data were specific to death certificates issued by some of the facilities. Both ethnographic summaries and content analysis were employed in analysing the data to account for contextual differences, especially in a multicultural society like Nigeria. The findings of the study implicated several issues that are taken for granted at the micro-family and macro-society levels. Consequently, policy relevant recommendations that could contribute to significant maternal mortality reduction were made.

Infectious and parasitic diseases nowadays represent a very small share of the total mortality of developed countries which mortality profile is dominated by cancers and diseases of the circulatory system. It has been suggested that, due to old people’s frailty, population aging may result in a fresh upsurge in infectious diseases. Routine indicators of cause-specific mortality are likely to underestimate the role played by these diseases in mortality because 1) the chapter “certain infectious and parasitic diseases“ of the 10th ICD includes only part of these diseases 2) these indicators only account for the underlying cause of the death. In a previous study, we have shown that roughly 3 out of 4 mentions of an infectious/parasitic disease are not selected as the underlying cause. Multiple (both contributing and underlying) cause-of-death data have been used in order to re-evaluate mortality levels attributed to a given condition, as well as to examine what are the most frequent associations of causes involving this condition. We use this approach to analyse the mortality involving infectious/parasitic diseases of France and Italy. The analysis is performed on an extended list of the infectious and parasitic diseases.

An estimated 287,000 women die each year from complications in pregnancy or childbirth. Millennium Development Goal 5 includes a target to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters by 2015. Accurate measurement of maternal mortality is needed to develop a greater understanding of the problem, to increase effectiveness of program planning and targeting, and to track progress toward this goal. In the absence of good quality vital statistics, a number of interim methods are used to measure maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to document three community-based interim methods that measure maternal mortality using verbal autopsy: a post-census mortality survey in Mozambique, a sample vital registration with verbal autopsy in Zambia, and a large-scale household survey in Bangladesh. This study will summarize the measures of maternal mortality obtained from these three platforms, compare and contrast the different methodologies employed, and evaluate strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This study will show that verbal autopsy is a feasible method for collecting maternal mortality data in the absence of reliable vital registration data and that choice of an interim method is dependent on balancing the trade-offs between statistical considerations and feasibility in the local context.

Today 27th IUSSP International Population Conference is going to discuss about international population management development, before it to start I have say thank you very much to all of you, my especial thank for them who are going to arrangement the wonderful international population conference to them and all members of IUSSP, this Busan City is famous not only environment but also his ancient eminent history, today we sat together to discuss the most important thing is population management for future, about this my view is definitely separate than others , I have to say that we all similar point but mine point same to all of you , I hope what I will have thought for population management for future ,it I called ‘imagination for population management future’
This topic I have divided two part for explaining the nature of population ,what the output of the nature of population, of this two what mine imagination , in here I try to briefly elaborate, I can expect all of you included all research personality you all can understand it

Health is a good indicator of well-being of people of a country. Life expectancy has been used to represent the health aspect. Developed countries of the world have achieved considerable increase in life expectancy due to advancement in medical science. However, developing countries are still struggling hard to achieve the same level. Cause-elimination life tables focus on the hypothetical question - what would be a cohort’s mortality experience if a particular cause of death is eliminated. The objective of this study is to find out gain in life expectancy by age and sex after eliminating a specific cause of death. The study has used the Medical Certification of Cause of Death data of SRS, mid-year population provided by Technical Group on Population Projections for five selected states of India namely, Bihar, Kerala, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. Data are categorized into five causes of death. Initial results show that gain in life expectancy is higher for male when all selected causes of death except circulatory diseases are eliminated, which has higher gains in females. This technique is useful in finding out potential benefits of disease elimination and is an essential tool for health policymakers and planners to set-up priorities for intervention programmes.

The level of maternal mortality is an indicator of disparity in access to appropriate health care and nutrition services particularly during pregnancy and childbirth. India has made an appreciable progress in improving the overall health status but it is far from satisfaction. The pace of decline of maternal mortality on has been quite low. The maternal mortality is not only a health issue but also a matter of social injustice and discrimination. The National Family Health Survey 1992-93 was provide the national level estimate of maternal mortality but due to the scanty sample size state level estimates could not be produced therefore several indirect methods have been proposed for estimation of maternal mortality.
The fertility beyond age 35 years (i.e. excess fertility) is risky for both women and child and it leads to miscarriage, maternal & child mortality thus in this study an attempt has been made to relate excess fertility to the maternal death using simple regression technique. The proposed predictor variable explains 85 percent to the maternal mortality. Estimates obtained through proposed procedure are quite close to the observed value of maternal mortality. Also maternal mortality is estimated for the different categories of the population.