Poster session on Fertility (1)

The fertility decline has been observed in most regions of the developing world over the last three decades. Major fertility decline have occurred in populations that are poor, with large rural and illiterate strata. This situation raises questions about the factors responsible for fertility transition. This paper critically examines fertility levels, trends, and the role of proximate determinants of fertility decline by economic status (poor/non-poor) in selected Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines and Vietnam. Economic status is measured by computing a ‘wealth index’, i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis. In analyzing the major proximate determinants we applied Bongaarts model to data obtained from three rounds of DHS surveys. The contribution of each of the major proximate variables has examined through the decomposition of TFR for three points of time. Results indicate that fertility is comparatively higher among poor than non-poor women however; it is declining gradually probably due to the increasing CPR and diffusion of idea of perceived benefits of small family size. Contraceptive practice is playing the key role in fertility decline among poor and non-poor women.

This paper investigates the determinants of childlessness among men and women from Bulgaria, Romania and Russia, using data on a sub-sample of 30-49 years old respondents from the Generations and Gender Survey (2004-2005). We used two models using weighted logistic regressions to contrast childless (involuntary or voluntary) men and women with fathers and mothers. The first model includes covariates related to background and work related characteristics, early life course variables, attitudes and values. The second model adds a set of three variables about family formation. Relevant results from the extended model indicate that childlessness is linked with higher levels of education among Bulgarian and Romanian adults regardless gender, and with better job positions for Romanian men and women. Mother’s higher education among Bulgarian men and absence of siblings among Romanian female increase childlessness. It seems that having siblings discourage childlessness, regardless gender and country. Non-traditional attitudes, particularly disagreeing with the key role of children in women’s life fulfillment, favors childlessness. As expected, celibacy and couple’s breakdown play the most important role in childlessness, while cohabitation reduces the probability of being childless, regardless gender and country.

This paper investigates patterns of fertility decline in the four Asian Tiger countries with newly industrialized economies (NIEs) - Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan; and empirically test the relative importance of fertility decline and immigration on population aging. This paper contributes to the understanding of fertility decline in these four countries in the context of prominent demographic theoretical frameworks of fertility decline. Furthermore, drawing from emerging literature on the cause and consequences of “ultra-low” fertility in these countries, I aim to provide a comprehensive theoretical framework to better understand the fertility decline in these four countries in region-specific context rather than through convergence to the West paradigm. In addition, using the cohort-component population projection method, I test the effects of fertility decline and immigration on population aging. Findings suggest fertility decline in these four countries is a complex process that requires a comprehensive theoretical framework. In addition, fertility decline has a greater impact than immigration on population aging; and there is the need to focus on public policy to address the low fertility rather than immigration in these countries.

The Beckerian hypothesis, which forms much of the cornerstone of the study of the association between income and fertility levels suggests that there is a negative association between number of children and levels of income such that at higher income levels more children must be traded off for “better” quality ones. Our contention is that it is not necessarily the case that couples at higher end of the income scale will have fewer but higher quality children than those with lower incomes. Recasting the income- fertility association in a social mobility framework and drawing on the seminal work of Susan Greenhalgh on “fertility as mobility” in late nineteenth century traditional Chinese society and modifying Coale’s three necessary and sufficient conditions for demographic transition, we argue that even couples lower down the income scale will be willing to invest in quality rather than quantity of children if the institutional framework in terms of education and employment opportunities enhance mobility prospects. We examine this alternate theoretical framework using data from the India Human Development Survey (2005). Preliminary cross tabulations provide support for our hypothesis; which we examine further in a regression framework controlling for couples’ background information as caste and location.

During the post-war years, the daily births in the developed countries suggest a systematic decline in Sundays and in a lesser degree in Saturdays too. This fact is related to practices of the medical profession as for obvious reasons, they plan their working hours. Such practices have a significant impact on hospital infrastructure as they cause overload on certain days, and under-utilization of the hospital services in others. However the intensity and the starting time of this phenomenon significantly differ between countries, while in some of them, the appearance of reactions, as well as the awareness of the medical body, resulted to a reversal of this trend in recent years. In this work, an index is used for measuring the intensity of this phenomenon and time series analysis techniques are applied in order to provide a comparative analysis of the shape and the evolution of the daily fluctuations of births in a variety of European countries and the USA. In addition using statistical clustering techniques, a classification of these countries according to the starting time, the progress and the intensity of this phenomenon is attempted.

In the present study, an attempt has been made to estimate the fertility-inhibiting effects of the four important proximate determinants i.e. marriage, contraception, induced abortion and postpartum infecundability in Vietnam. The study is based on using data obtained from the 1997 and 2002 round of the Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey. Bongaarts model is used to determine the contribution of the proximate determinants in fertility change. The analysis shows that change in proportion of married women, contraceptive use and induced abortion are generally the main factors responsible for fertility change at the national level and rural areas in Vietnam . For urban areas, induced abortion, postpartum infecundability and proportion of marriage are the main factors responsible for fertility change during the same period whereas contraceptive use has marginal effect. The estimated TFR is probably smaller than the actual one and the difference between the two has narrowed down over the period.

People's fertility intentions are related to the high sex ratio at birth (SRB) in countries and regions where son-preference is the norm. The male-biased SRB in China has had some important social consequences, such as the lack of females and the male marriage squeeze, which are likely to have serious repercussions for China's social and public safety. In order to solve the problem of gender imbalance, the Chinese government implemented a series of policies to intervene in people's fertility intentions. The objective is that by changing people's son-preference, the sex ratio at birth will be reduced, and ultimately China will achieve the goal of gender equality. This article mainly concerns empirical research on intervention in people's fertility intentions by the Chinese government, which has been carried out at the county level. By adopting a multi-method approach, this paper examines the relationship between gender imbalance governance factors and people's fertility intentions at the county level in Shaanxi province. We explore how the governance at the county level affects people's fertility intentions in China.

When a pregnancy comes sooner than desired or comes at a time when the mother had wished for no more children, the complexities associated with birth of that child are more likely to be perceived as complications. National Family Health Survey data (2005-2006) has been used to study the extent of association between pregnancy intentions and duration of breastfeeding. Pregnancy intention has been classified as pregnancies that are intended and unintended (mistimed or unwanted). A considerable percent (22 percent) of pregnancies in India are unintended. Hence, it becomes important to examine the impact of unintendedness on breastfeeding practices. However, it has been seen from the analyses that children born out of unintended pregnancies are more likely to have prolonged breastfeeding duration as compared to children born out of intended pregnancies. The KM curves prove this fact. Hence, pregnancy intention is not an important factor determining duration of breastfeeding in India.

Researchers in India and elsewhere have also noted that fertility declines over the past decade or so have intensified pressure on women to act to achieve their desired family sex composition within the confines of a smaller family size. This study examines the hypothesis that families in Uttar Pradesh want more sons than families elsewhere, and also examines how the sex composition of women’s current parity influences both fertility desires and full range of reproductive actions women may take to realize them including temporary contraception and sterilization. The analysis is based on NFHS-III dataset using 1457 and 1794 currently married women for parity two and three respectively.
The result indicates son preference go beyond a singular preference for male children. Families may want one daughter, very few want more than that and most definitely want at least one or two sons. Women with this combination are 42% less likely to report having wanted another child relative to those with three girls. women with two or more boys and no girls or those with two girls and one boy are significantly and considerably less likely to want another child (64% and 84% less likely, respectively.

Macro data approaches analyse fertility with different research designs: They use different country groups, time periods and sets of variables. The results depend strongly on the comprehensiveness of the research design. The change of correlation signs between fertility and some determinants occurring in the 1980ies (Ahn/Mira 2002; Castles 2003) is crucial for understanding paths to low fertility in some OECD-countries. However, the knowledge about this phenomenon is still limited. Recent explanations have stressed advances in development (Myrskylä/Billari/Kohler 2009) or the relation of diffusion and adaptation effects (Bujard 2011). Also, gender-related institutions (McDonald 2002) or cultural change (Lesthaeghe 2011) offer explanations.
This paper aims to shed light on the interaction of cultural, economic, institutional and policy determinants of fertility in a long-term perspective by using cross-sectional and changing rate regressions. Why do correlation signs change for such a large number of fertility determinants, and why so fast? Given several interactions between these factors, what is the hidden hand behind these changing relations? The empirical findings of this study allow for an understanding of long-term fertility development; based on this, an integrated theory of fertility in OECD countries will be developed.