Sideline demographic methods and data

Estimation of inherent coverage error in census count is an highly addressed problem in statistical demography.
In this article we briefly discuss the statistical methodology to obtain the omission rate in Indian census using Dual System
Estimation(DSE) technique. We have explicitly studied the correlation bias factor involved in the estimate, its extent
and consequences. A new potential source of bias in the estimate is introduced. At the survey
time, more efficient enumerators (than census time) are appointed and
this fact may inflate the dependency between two lists and
lead to a significant bias. Some examples are given to
demonstrate this argument in various plausible situations. We have suggested one simple and flexible approach which can control the bias.
Our proposed estimator can efficiently overcome the potential bias by achieving desired degree of accuracy(almost unbiased) with relatively better efficiency. Overall improvements and consistency in the results are explored through simulation study on different populations. New estimator is also compared also with another type of dual system estimator used by Indian Sample Registration System(SRS) to estimate number of births and deaths.

For the new round of IIASA/Oxford education projections, we present a new fertility scenario making process that attempts to overcome limitations of regular assumption making. Firstly, we include a large number of international experts to feed into the scenario making process by answering a questionnaire to identify main drivers of fertility, and secondly, a group of meta-expert evaluates results from the questionnaire. The construction of the scenarios consists of a three staged modeling approach. First, we estimate a model, using a country’s level and decrease of fertility during the past five-year period and compare it to countries with similar characteristics since 1970. Second, we estimate expected decrease of fertility by employing information, gathered from the fertility questionnaire. And third, numerical point estimates, supplied by the meta-experts, are utilized to estimate future fertility decline. Combining the information from three qualitatively very different sources, we are able to provide a new set of fertility assumptions to feed into the IIASA/Oxford education projections. This paper discusses a new assumption making approach for countries in today’s high fertility world and compares the differences in methods and results to the Bayesian projection methodology introduced by the United Nations.

Demographic behaviour is shaped not only by characteristics at the individual level, but also by the context in which individuals are embedded. The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) supports research about the impact of contextual factors on demographic behaviour. It facilitates research on micro-macro links by providing cross-country comparative contextual data on demographic, socio-economic and policy developments, covering up to 60 countries in Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania. Although conceptually linked to the Generations and Gender Survey, it can also be used as contextual data source for the analysis of data from other surveys or to study macro-trends. The GGP-Contextual Database comprises a unique combination of features, with which it might serve as a blue print/platform for future contextual databases of other demographic surveys and/or world regions. This includes providing harmonized cross-country comparative time-series of indicators often including sub-national regional data, policy developments, and a dynamic web environment with innovative functionalities, e.g. in terms of metadata documentation by single data-entry and automatic geo-coding. The paper presents conceptual considerations as well as guidelines for data collection and harmonization.

The aim this study is to examine the nature and patterns of the reported age statistics in the North West Province using the 1996, 2001 and 2011 South African population censuses. First, the enumerated age-sex population distribution from the 1996 and 2001 censuses are examined to highlight the nature and patterns of age misreporting by means of such indices as Whipples, Myers and United Nations Age-Sex Score. Second, essential age-sex features of the population and their implications for development planning are highlighted. The study indicate that the quality of the reported age statistics in North West Province, like in the other provinces in South Africa, is quite good and contrast to findings from most other Sub-Saharan populations. Furthermore, the reported age statistics show a preference of terminal digits 6, 4, 8, 0 and 2, implying a preference of ages ending in even numbers. Further research should establish the factors responsible for this pattern.

The reliable data on vital events from Civil registration system is the key to track the progress of MDG IV and V. In India, Sample Registration System (SRS) is taken as a substitute to Civil Registration System and provide information to measure MDG. There has been some efforts to examine the completeness of SRS data until 2001. This paper examines completeness of registration of death by SRS, India for the period 1990-2009.The completeness of death registration is assessed using the method proposed by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981). Finding of the study suggested over registration of deaths during 1990-99 and under registration of death during 2000-09 by Sample Registration System of India. Result show that, at national level, during 1990-99, 22% deaths among men and 11% among female were over registered while during 2000-09, 1% of death among men and 13% among women were under registered by the sample registration system in India.

Childhood and Adult Mortality (CAM) remain public health problems in Nigeria. Despite variations in socio-cultural and access to health care in regions in Nigeria which have been linked with mortality, literature on differential in CAM by region is scarce. Among the available few, information in which their estimates were based are often unreliable due to problems with death data. This study was designed to fill the gap. It utilized NDHS 2008(n=33,385), women-data. Brass 1-parameter & INDEPTH life tables were used to estimate CAM respectively. The survival probability of females was higher than males at both childhood and adulthood. Under-5 mortality was found to be highest in northwest (Males: 1q0=153/1000; 5q0=223/1000 and Females: 1q0=132/1000; 5q0=205/1000) and lowest in southwest (Males: 1q0=71/1000; 5q0=95/1000 and Females: 1q0=56/1000; 5q0=78/1000). Also, probability of dying at age 60 when an individual has survived to age 15(45q15) was lowest in southwest (Male=0.3344;Females=0.2756), highest in northwest (Male=0.4968; Females=0.4072) and higher among males than females. Mortality in Nigeria is high and hard hit region is northwest. The refined estimates of under-5 mortality in Nigeria obtained in this study are higher than estimates in NDHS report. Thus, there might be need for data adjustment in the subsequent report.

Adam Smith, T. Robert Malthus, and Charles Darwin: They are respectively founders of modern methodological frameworks in economics, demography, and biology. This paper first introduces studies in current literature in which these three subjects overlap, and points to the two types of complementarities that allow the performing of such cross-disciplinary studies. Next, this paper traces back the history of modern science and shows that Smith, Malthus, and Darwin applied these complementarities to develop their respective frameworks. Smith employed the biological perspective on human nature to establish the economic methodology, often referred to as methodological individualism, Darwin applied the economic methodology to found modern biology, and Malthus stood in the middle, demonstrating that demography plays a crucial role in the field where economics and biology overlap. This suggests that the cross-disciplinary approach at this intersection is indeed orthodox.

The present study attempt to explore small area estimation techniques for estimation of Infant Mortality rate (IMR) at district level for the major state of India. Since many health data are unavailable at the district level, policymaker sometimes rely on state-level dataset to understand the health need at district level. District level data on births and deaths from Civil Registration System and Service Statistics are inadequate and not access able uniformly for all the districts. To meet the challenge for the need of district level indicators, the present study is an attempt to assess the data from the available sources and integrate them through small area estimation techniques to provide district level estimation infant mortality rate (IMR).The estimates of IMR by small area method provide robust result as evident from small gap from Sample Registration System (SRS) and National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) at state level. The concluding remark is small area estimation is good for estimating IMR at district level.

The population of Nagaland, a state in North East India, decreased during 2001-2011, after growing at abnormally high rates during the past few decades. This is the first time after 1941-1951 that a state in India has witnessed an absolute decline in population. In light of this, the paper examines the census population estimates for internal consistency and also attempts to validate them using information on birth and death rates from other demographic surveys and information on gross school enrolment and electorate. The paper also checks if illegal immigration and politically-motivated manipulation could explain the discrepancies. The paper shows that the Census substantially overestimated population during 1981-2001. While the discrepancy in the 1991 Census could possibly be accounted for mostly by illegal immigrants from two neighbouring countries, a substantial portion of the discrepancy in the 2001 Census could possibly be attributed to deliberate inflation of population figures aimed at avoiding potential loss of seats due to the impending delimitation of electoral constituencies. Since the Census and the surveys that use it as a sampling frame are the bedrock of development planning in India, the findings question the Indian state’s institutional capacity to design empirically-informed policies.

The definition of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) related to universal primary education is arguably unfair to countries, particularly least developed countries (LDCs), because of their lower base achievement levels. Hence, assessments based on common methods such as rate ratios and rate differentials are met with criticism because the goal for attaining universal primary enrollment is a level end-goal and differs from some other MDGs which are relative or absolute change goals. Also, it is critical that the progress is assessed not only in terms of achievement but also in terms of the effort toward achievement. Given such intricacies, this paper reviews the existing methods and discusses an alternative level-sensitive approach that informs regarding effort and offers similar conclusions irrespective of the adopted definition of the education indicator. Data from the official MDG monitoring database of the United Nations Statistics Division is analysed to present an international comparison of educational achievements.