Sideline demographic methods and data

ABSTRACT: Several studies have indicated that fertility transition has been taking place in some sub-Saharan African countries, including Ghana. There is a need for a continuous systematic attempt to identify the factors associated with the transition. Accordingly, the present study was based on the Bongaarts framework and its reformulation by John Stover to examine the proximate determinants of fertility over three sets of surveys in Ghana.-1998, 2003 and 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS). The difference in the index of sterility in the two models may be attributable to the use of all forms of sterility by John Stovers whiles Bongaarts model uses only pathological sterility.The use of sexual activity rather than marriage in Stover’s model is also a better measurement of inhibiting factor associated with pregnancy risk since non-marital sex has been high in Ghana.

A long standing priority in global health has been meeting the health needs of the youngest population, children under the age of 5. Efforts to improve the wellbeing of the population under 5 years of age requires accurate and timely assessment of the current levels and trends of mortality risk in children under the age of 5. Here we present an updated methodological strategy using Spatio-temporal and Gaussian process regressions to synthesize disparate mortality data sources into a coherent time series of 5q0 estimates with 95% uncertainty bounds. We anticipate that in rigorous predictive validity tests this updated modeling strategy will again outperform other synthesis modeling options including LOESS and spline-regression.

Comparison and comparability lie at the heart of any global social science. But, precise comparison is virtually impossible without similar methods and similar data. Comparable datasets are scarce in particular for historical periods. This paper introduces and compares four new historical panel datasets from East Asia: the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Liaoning (CMGPD-LN), the China Multi-Generational Dataset-Shuangcheng (CMGPD-SC), the Korean Multi-Generational Dataset-Tansong (KMGPD-TS) and Taiwan Colonial Household Register Database . It discusses the key features of these datasets; the historical institutions which produced the original data; the subsequent processes by which the data were reconstructed into individual level panels; the completeness of recording and problems of missing registers; and their potential for important social science research. The paper shows how these data are important to identify and differentiate what are particular and different among these populations and what are general and similar. It also shows how the comparative method applied to these datasets can illuminate the local as well as the global, or at least regional. Such comparison should give us a much more nuanced comparative understanding of East Asian historical sociology and global social science in general.

In this paper, we propose a new model life table system that is parsimonious and adequately captures the range of age patterns of mortality observed in real populations and yield high predictive validity, not just measured by summary indices such as life expectancy at birth, but more importantly by age specific mortality rates. It provides satisfactory estimates of age specific mortality for countries with high levels of mortality, especially those plagued by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Finally, this new model could generate age specific mortality with a plausible time trend.

The generalization of the ageing process, and the diversity of social, economic and cultural scenarios that this process constitutes for the elderly have configured a demand for research which poses new challenges.
In this regard, conceptual progress is important, but the methodological and operationalization challenges still persist. Three theoretical dimensions have been systematized for Latin America for the study of old age, and specific indicators systems have been proposed. As far as the methodological aspect is concerned, this has been less clear on how to proceed in uneven national contexts, and with the available data sources.
Within this framework, we ask ourselves which possibilities there are to advance in the study of the elderly based on the information that is available in four countries in Latin America. Therefore, this research proposes to explore the available data sources taking as a reference the proposal for indicators made by CELADE (2006), with a view from the Human Rights Based Approach. An exploratory design is put forward, based on the analysis of questionnaires of a selection of data sources.

The new human development Index devised by UNDP in 2010 replaced the adult literacy and school enrolment rate by School Life Expectancy (SLE) in measuring educational progress across countries/regions and groups. Though there were some attempt to prepare the SLE at national level, there are limited number of studies on gender differentials in SLE at regional level and among socio-economic groups. Using the unit data from 66th round, schedule 10.0 of National Sample Survey Organisation this paper estimates the gender inequality in SLE across the states of India and socio-economic groups. Besides, the gender differentials in school enrolment, drop-out and never attendance for primary, secondary and tertiary level has been analysed. Results indicate that the gender differentials in SLE is large across social and economic groups. The gender gap is large among those belonging to middle economic strata, other backward caste and Muslims. Among states the mean SLE varies from 10.3 years in Dadra Nagar Haveli to 14.6 years in Nagaland. The gender gap in enrolment indicate that for all levels of education higher differentials prevail in rural areas and they increase with the level. At tertiary level the gender gap in enrolment in rural areas is twice as much of that in urban areas.

International migration flow data often lacks adequate measurements of volumes, direction and completeness. These pitfalls limit comparative studies of migration and constrain cross national population projections to use net migration measures or inadequate data. This paper aims to address these issues at a global level, presenting estimates of bilateral flow tables between 191 countries. A methodology to estimate flow tables of migration transitions for the globe is illustrated in two parts. First, a methodology to derive flows from sequential stock tables is developed. Second, the methodology is applied to recently released World Bank migration stock tables between 1960 and 2000 (Ozden, 2011), estimating a set of four decadal global migration flow tables. The results of the applied methodology are discussed with reference to comparable estimates of global net migration flows of the United Nations and models for international migration flows. The proposed methodology adds to the limited previous literature on linking migration flows to stocks. The estimated flow tables represent a first-of-a-kind set of comparable global origin-destination flow data.

In the absence of a well-functioning vital registration system to track mortality in a population, health planners often rely on routine health surveys to provide this most basic health information. Sibling survival histories, where a survey respondent is asked about each of his or her siblings’ births and, if applicable, deaths, provide a direct way to estimate adult mortality by survey. The purpose of this paper is to refine the methods which account for the selection bias, zero-surviving reporters and recall bias inherent in these surveys to generate plausible estimates of adult mortality rates even in the presence of a relationship between family size and adult mortality.

We have implemented changes to the previous method, referred to as the Corrected Sibling Survival (CSS) method, such that it (1) uses appropriate survival weights that account for the study design, and (2) recovers the mortality experience of the families that are not represented because none of the siblings is alive and eligible to respond to the survey. We validate these methodological developments in a range of simulation environments. We also present new ways of adjusting for recall bias and handling sparse data in survey designs where the age range of the respondents is narrower than the age range desired for estimation.

Reliable and valid data on sexual behaviour and socio-demographic characteristics among socially marginalised populations, such as female sex workers (FSWs) remain challenging to collect. Particularly little is known about FSWs working in rural areas. This paper uses the example of a comparative mixed methods study of rural and urban FSWs in Indonesia, to (1) describe how qualitative and quantitative methods can be combined to overcome research problems accentuated in studies of sexual behaviour within the context of transactional sex, and (2) to discuss the strengths, limitations and implications for practice of such an approach. Mixed methods in this study include a survey of rural and urban FSWs (n=310), in-depth interviews (n=11), key informant interviews (n=5) and ethnographic assessments. The sample of FSWs was drawn up using a novel combination of purposive sampling techniques. Findings show how the use of mixed methods can enable the collection of context-specific behavioural and socio-demographic data and can serve as a tool for internal validation. In addition, failure to include the hardest to reach and often most vulnerable FSW sub-groups, such as those working in rural settings, can be avoided through the use of combined purposive sampling techniques.

Empirical studies on disability across countries and over time provide useful information for designing focused interventions and policy recommendations. To better understand health outcomes as well as inequalities, reliable data sources are essential. One of the major concerns in carrying out cross country or temporal analysis is the reliability as well as the comparability of data sources. This problem is particularly acute for disability estimates and analysis.
For researchers, census microdata offers important advantages over tables because with the former it is possible not only to take into account variations in definitions, concepts, codes and universes but also to analyze the demography of disability by age, gender, birth cohort, and other important characteristics. The paper offers an overview of microdata on disability available from IPUMS-International, the world’s largest, readily accessible repository of census microdata. We discuss disability data for 68 countries and 211 samples. The paper focuses on the methodology and policy issues related to integration of disability microdata, analyzes demographic data on disability prevalence, and identifies some of the methodological issues that need to be addressed in order to improve the quality and comparability of census data on disability.