Socioeconomic differentials in fertility and family formation

The support of the families with children is the most important part of the family policy, especially in countries with fertility below the replacement level. Such countries are on their road to the depopulation. Russia has joined to the low fertility countries in the 1960-s; since that time a housing problem is the sensitive topic for many families in Russia; housing acute shortage, bad quality of living conditions are one of the top of obstacles to have another child in Russia. This study examines the housing problem in family policy in Russia and in France. This project is an analysis of the different family policy measures in Russia in the demographic and economic context and their potential efficiency comparing to the French and European experience in the same area. Author explores regional differences in housing problem aspects and solutions in family support (measures and budget expenses) and demographic results in different regions of Russian Federation. The data set of the research is the waves of Russian and French GGS and the recent survey “Family and Fertility” conducted in Russia in 2009.

This study is devoted to cohort fertility in Russia. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the changes in Russian cohort fertility and parity cohort fertility. Data: Russian Census 2002, Russian Census 2010.
Methodology: The method of cohort analysis and method of parity-progression table is used to study parity distribution (the probability-mass function) (Barkalov 2004). The Pollard’s decomposition of the Total Fertility difference also used (Pollard 1988). The total fertility, the mean number of siblings and the mean birth order (composite fertility quantum indicators), and mean age of first birth are calculated for 1940-1970 cohorts.

In Malawi, a woman’s average fertility has declined by only one birth, from 6.7 to 5.7 children per woman in the last three decades. This study examines trends in the proximate determinants of fertility in Malawi with the view to explain their relative contribution to overall fertility level using 2000, 2004 and 2010 MDHS. First, we reconstruct age period specific fertility rates that enable us to examine past fertility trends across different age cohorts for population and consistency check. Next, for each survey, the inhibiting influence of each proximate determinant on fertility is explored in detail using proximate determinants model of fertility developed by Bongaarts and Potter (1983). The apparent decline is confined to the middle age group, an indication that fertility control primarily is as result of spacing rather than limiting births. While contraceptive use has risen tremendously, the effect of the index of contraception in reducing fertility is less pronounced due to predominance use of one method, injectables. This suggests that couples in Malawi have fewer options to control their fertility. By decomposing fertility, the level of education contributed to two fifth of fertility decline. However, the composition of women with secondary education is not sufficient enough to favour fast fertility decline.

Several Indian states have achieved or on the way of achieving the replacement level fertility, but the performance of Bihar are far from this. Accordingly, this paper attempts to assess the level and trends of fertility in across districts and examines determinants of fertility and its future prospect. Results: TFR is slow decline among districts but yet some districts have high TFR and substantial differences across the socio-economic groups. Contraceptive prevalence rate is marginal differs across the groups in the state. The percentage change TFR is more in developed region (one district) compare least developed region. The developed region has performed better than other regions in case program factors. Result of Gompertz Model indicates that rate of decline in TFR is decelerate after 1997, Low literacy. Low urbanization preceding poverty are the other important factors, which may be the cause for decelerate. Replacement level fertility will be achieved by 2035.

While the existence of son preference in India is well-known in the literature, a key gap in our understanding of the determinants of son preference relates to potential differences that may exist between religious groups. This paper examines data from two waves of the National Family and Health Survey, 1998-99 and 2005-06 to determine if and to what extent does son preference differ between Hindus and Muslims, the two largest religious groups in India. The analysis of two indicators of son preference is proposed: latent son preference, measured by women’s self-reported preferred sex composition of children. A second indicator is proposed: revealed son preference, measured by parity progression ratios, conditional on sex of any previous children, indicating actual son-targeting fertility behaviors. Thus we will be able to compare and contrast differences between Hindus and Muslims related to both latent preferences and actual behaviors. The preliminary analysis of latent preferences shows that Muslim have lower son preference compared to Hindus. The effect of religion remains strongly significant after controlling for known socioeconomic determinants of son preference, suggesting that religious beliefs and practices especially among the majority Hindus may be a key cultural explanation for the persistence of son preference.

The sex ratio in India has been historically negative or in other words unfavorable to females. Particularly, the sex ratio in juvenile ages i.e. girls in the age group 0-6 years per 1000 boys is worsened. If there is more son preference then the percentage of male children should show a declining trend as number of children increases. This may be more pronounced in case of females who have completed their fertility. In this light, although this study is inspired from the worrying facts of continuously strengthening tendency towards discrimination against women through integration of prevailing traditional gender biased norms and modern technology, but the effort is to understand the extent to which the son preference is prevalent in India and its states. The National Family Health Survey has collected data on the complete birth history of women who are in the reproductive age group i.e. 15-49 years at the time of survey. The data have also been collected on the ‘sex’ of each child. From this data, sex of the child at any given parity and number of children produced by a women can be easily identified. This data has been analyzed to study the proportion of male children for women giving a specified number of children. Ever married women whose ages were more than 35 years on the survey date are considered for the analysis.

In West Bengal, India; urban rapid fertility decline started in the late 1980s in urban areas and hence fertility reached at the replacement level in 1989, whereas rural areas achieved that level in 2007, after two decades. In the rest of the state fertility decline began in the 1970s. The principal aim of this paper is to explore the causes of rural-urban gap in fertility levels, and more importantly the tempo and quantum effect on fertility transition by using DHS data and also primary level data. Quantitative methods were applied to assess the tempo and qualitative (FGDs) were adopted to understand the difference. Although fertility has declined substantially in the past two decades in West Bengal, still rural-urban gap in fertility persists within the state. This gap has narrowed down recently but urban fertility has come to a stall for some time at a very low level and rural fertility recently reached replacement level. The structural change in socio-economic conditions in the past two decades perhaps helped to bridge the gap and motivate rural women to adopt small family. The diffusion of ideas of small family and change in aspirations about children from urban to rural area contributed to rapid decline in rural fertility rate.

Nigeria and Ghana are the most densely populated countries in the West Africa with different high fertility levels. We examined factors influencing the unprecedented high fertility levels in the two countries as well as the differentials in the effect of these factors across the countries.
A comparative cross sectional study of Nigeria and Ghana Demographic Health Survey (NDHS & GDHS, 2008) involving 15-49 years old 33,385 and 4,916 women respectively. Data analyzed using descriptive statistics and multinomial logistics regression, pvalue=0.05.
The mean age of respondents in Nigeria and Ghana was 28.65±9.49 and 29±9.70 years respectively. More Nigerian women live in rural areas (64.3%) compared to Ghanaian women (56.0%). Residence, education, employment status and wealth index were significantly associated with fertility levels in both countries. In Ghana, currently married women were over twice more likely to have high fertility level compared with low fertility women than those who were not (OR=2.49, 95% CI: 2.04-3.04) and almost four times more likely in Nigeria (OR=3.81, 95% CI:1.1-11.9).
Primary education or none and unemployment were amongst factors causing high fertility, there is need for public enlightenment on fertility reduction as well as better women education and employment
Key words: Fertility, Educational

Social scientists and demographers are proffering explanations for the emerging pattern of fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the traditional Bongaarts model, its extended version and Stover’s refinement, we try to offer a more nuanced explanation of African fertility transitions. We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys of 23 sub-Saharan African countries to investigate the patterns and changes in fertility and proximate determinants within and between the countries. Particularly we compared the impact of proximate determinants on fertility at both pre-1994 and post-1994 fertility regimes. It is shown that in pre-1994 period, the traditional Bongaarts model was more useful to explaining fertility variations than in the post-1994 era .Results also show that in East and Southern Africa, Stover’s version of proximate determinant model is more useful to explaining fertility changes than the original Bongaarts model. There are also various differentials identified. Theoretical, programme and policy implications of these findings are discussed.

In this paper, we examine recent trends in the endorsement of developmental perceptions concerning family and demographic behaviors and assess the extent to which developmental ideas have spread in Iran over time. Data from a two-wave panel study carried out in 2007 and in 2010/2011 are used to examine trends in the endorsement of developmental ideals. Data were collected among a sample of women in the city of Yazd, Iran. In the first round, respondents were selected using a probability sample of 548 married and 155 unmarried women aged 15-59. In the second wave, a total of 510 respondents were successfully re-interviewed along with 43 unmarried women who were selected in a replacement strategy.
Findings indicate that many elements of developmental idealism have been widely disseminated in Yazd, Iran and that the endorsement of the developmental idealism response generally increased over a relatively short period of time. Although, supports to some elements of developmental idealism remained stable or even slightly declined, results indicate that in most cases, there is a trend towards more acceptance and support for developmental idealism in Iran.
Future research is needed to examine the consequences of developmental idealism beliefs on family behaviors.