The youth bulge: What are its socio-economic and political consequences?

Despite the fact that the United Nations defined youth population to lie in the age category 15-24 long time ago, this age group haven't received a significant attention in demographic analysis and research. This definition of youth was made during preparations for the International Youth Year (1985), and endorsed by the General Assembly of the United Nations in 1981. Demography text books and references devote chapters and sections to the analysis of Age-sex composition, demographic (age) dependency ratios, women in reproductive age 15-49, working age population 15-64, and infants and children. It's clear that the analysis of youth population is absent in these main references, or to not to undermine their effort, on can say that the analysis of youth is embedded into the analysis of age-sex structure in general. Hence, a methodology for the analysis of this specific and important age group is badly needed in order to shed light on this important age group and encourage demographers to include such analysis in their research projects and publications.

In this communication I will aim to explore in a comparative perspective, between five age groups (18-26 year-old, 33-41 year-old, 48-56 year-old, 63-71 year-old and 78-86 year-old), and through the case study of Beijing the political consequences of the “youth bulge” in China.
Relying on answers I collected with an open-questions questionnaire in 2010 (N=627), I will point out in a comparative perspective between the five age groups which socio-historical events or changes are perceived as the most significant for the first two only-child generations. Then, I will discuss and put in perspective these findings with Gary Fuller and Jack A. Goldstone’s thesis which argues that countries moving from high to low fertility and mortality rates are more vulnerable to civil conflicts (Fuller, 1995, Goldstone, 1991, Urdal, 2006). To conclude I will argue that although the young Chinese may seem depoliticized because unlike their elders they mention very few political events, they however maintains a strong nationalist sentiment. I will also demonstrate that, as in the case of China, a “youth bulge” do not always leads to social instability.

N.B: I am sorry but I could not upload the figures coming with the long abstract (file to heavy).