Alternative assessments of the probability of death with a case study for persons with Celiac Disease in selected East European countries

The probability of death and with it the hope of survival depended in the past to a considerable extent on the level of advancement of the health service, the medical findings acquired and knowledge of the appropriate treatment processes. In the case of persons with Celiac Disease, which is a disease involving gluten intolerance, the hope of survival in the majority of countries was slim until the eighties of last century. These people died at a very young age thanks to ignorance of the diagnosis of their disease. However, as soon as it was possible to determine the diagnosis of Celiac Disease correctly there was a considerable breakthrough and progress rapidly changed the hope of survival for these people. In this way treatment procedures were found for hitherto unknown diseases, or at least there was information on reducing the consequences of these diseases. The submitted study will provide a look at the alternative assessment of the prob. of death of persons with Celiac Disease and the prob. of death in general. The modelling of the prob. of death of persons with Celiac Disease and persons in the general population is possible with the use of the LOGIT & PROBIT. On the basis of supplementary information about the population it’s then possible to construct various prob. scenarios with the utilisation of alternative variables.