Fertility Desire, Fertility Behavior and Fertility Level in the context of low fertility: the empirical evidence from Shanghai, China

Fertility level of a population is an aggregated outcome of individual’s fertility behaviors which are in turn determined by their fertility desire. There are substantial differences in understanding the relationship between fertility desire and fertility behavior. In order to describing the transition of fertility desire, fertility behavior and fertility level and examining the intriguing relationship between them in the context of low fertility, the paper presents empirical evidence from Shanghai, China, where that fertility level of the population has been at a very low level for a very long period.
Based on the results of several surveys in Shanghai since the early 1980’s, this paper describes and analyzes the transition of fertility desire in the past 30 years, with a focus on the desired number of children. The findings show that the desired number of children of people in Shanghai has been in the decreasing tendency, and the level is far below 2. The comparison between the desired number of children based on those surveys and total fertility rate in the corresponding years shows that the actual fertility level is lower than fertility desire expressed by the people in the surveys in Shanghai.