How do people predict their life expectancy? Results from rural China

Understanding subjective life expectancy (SLE) is critical for pension policy design and longevity insurance markets. Yet there are very few studies that focus on this question. This paper is the first of its kind to analyse subjective life expectancy in rural China. It draws on a new national survey in which participants were asked at what age an average person might die. This was interpreted as requesting a personal estimate of life expectancy, an interpretation supported by gender and regional differences in reported values.
This paper statistically analyses the relationship between SLE and various demographic, social and economic factors. Current analysis focuses on two provinces, one rich and one poor. The results indicate that demographics and family relationships are more important than economic status in people’s perceptions of their life expectancy. We compare SLE with census-based life expectancy. Results suggest that both men and women over the age of 60 underestimate their life expectancy relative to national data. But while younger women also underestimate life expectancy, younger men over-estimate time to death relative to national estimates.