How is internal migration reshaping metropolitan populations in Latin America?: new methodologies and new evidence

Due to its socio-demographic selectivity, migration can modify the structure of the population in both origin and destination. In the case of Latin American metropolitan areas, this “qualitative” impact was relatively stylized (although it was never measured in a rigorous way) some decades ago when every large city registered huge net in-migration and in-migration flows to the large cities predominantly came from rural areas. The current migratory scenario of Latin American metropolitan areas is different because immigration no longer comes mainly from rural areas but from other cities; moreover out-migration from large cities is growing (in many cases, emigrants outnumber in-migrants). And so, the stylized effect of the past probably does not longer exist. In order to shed some light on this issue, a new procedure based on the so-called “matrix of indicators flow” is used. The “qualitative” impact of internal migration on population composition will be estimated for around 20 cities of 1 million or more residents in six Latin American countries with micro-data from the 2000 and 2010 census rounds (Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama and Uruguay). This effect will be measured for sex ratio, percentage of children, percentage of older persons and average education.