Human Fertility Behavior over Time: An Application of Bivariate Geometric Distribution

A decomposition of changes in fertility in two different sub-periods over time shows that the reproductive behavior of younger and older women. Fertility behavior of women in the society can be excess through mathematical models, here in this study the fertility behavior over time is modeled using bivariate geometric distribution. The objective of this paper is to explain the changes in fertility rates, focusing in particular on the postponement of childbearing in Uttar Pradesh, India with an emphasis on socio-economic considerations. Data have been taken from the third round of NFHS. Cultural diversity in Uttar Pradesh is reflected in substantial demographic variation across the nation; therefore, fertility levels and trends are also estimated by urban-rural residence for the last two consecutive five years periods preceding the survey. The paper also presents an appropriate method for estimating the parameters involved in the model. The model also explains the proportion of childless female during both the period under consideration.