Labor Force Projections for Europe by Age, Sex, and Highest Level of Educational Attainment, 2008 to 2053

One aspect of the expected negative economic consequences of population aging in Europe is based on the anticipated shrinkage of the labor force. However, a smaller but more productive labor force might be able to alleviate some of these expected consequences of population aging. Using data from the European Labor Force Survey, I project the economically active population for 26 EU-countries up to 2053 by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment. Adding the education dimension has an effect on the absolute size of the projected labor force – due to significant heterogeneity in participation across education categories – and allows inferences about the composition of the labor force beyond the common projection dimensions age and sex. The results show that the European labor force – besides being older and “more female” – is projected to be composed of people that are significantly higher educated than today.