The economics of population ageing

I provide labor force projections by age, sex and highest level of educational attainment until 2060 for India and China. This will allow to not only compare the development of the labor force in terms of size and age-structure, but to additionally make it possible to show changes in the educational distribution within the economically active population. This is of particular interest since for China, the absolute size of the labor force is projected to decline by 2030, and the population is projected to age rapidly during the next decades. Some of the expected negative economic consequences of this development might possibly be compensated for by a more educated, more productive labor force. India, whose working-age population is not projected to decline, nor is its population aging as quickly, would still benefit greatly from a better educated labor force. It will be shown that depending on the assumed path of future educational expansion and of education-specific labor force participation, the labor force in both countries could develop along very different paths.

This study examines the relationships between poverty, defined as having income below the poverty line, perceived economic strain, and psychological distress among older Thai adults. Data were taken from the 2002 National Elderly Survey in Thailand. The sample included 21,417 older men and women aged ≥ 60 years. Multiple regression models were employed for data analysis and findings revealed that elderly poverty was significantly associated with perceived economic strain and psychological distress. After controlling for socio-demographic and health-related variables, perceived economic strain fully mediated the effect of poverty on psychological distress. Family support had a powerful buffering effect on the relationship between poverty and economic strain, as well as between poverty and psychological distress. Policy and strategies targeted at poverty and economic strain in late life, and filial support should be continuously promoted.

This article investigates savings of ethnic minorities in the UK. We use the life-cycle model and data from the Family Resources Survey to analyse the saving profiles of ethnic minorities by gender and age cohorts. Socio-economic variables are used to better understand saving patterns of ethnic minorities.
We apply the life-cycle model to the different ethnic groups and find significant heterogeneity between and within groups in terms of socio-economic characteristics and saving accumulation during the working life and in retirement. While Indian respondents show saving patterns similar to the white population (our control group), Bangladeshi and Pakistani respondents experience a significant disadvantage in terms of employment and savings.
Gender and ethnicity are important determinants of financial well-being. Bangladeshi women exhibit the greatest financial difficulties amongst all groups examined, often as consequence of low full time employment rates and incomes. For all ethnic groups education is a crucial factor in determining saving behaviour.
The importance of our results lies in determining whether the risk of poverty in retirement is significantly higher for ethnic minority groups and in assessing specific socio-economic and cultural reasons leading many to poverty in later life.

I will start with the need for a new population policy paradigm that covers the concerns of ageing and shrinking populations in addition to those of growing populations. Such a new paradigm should explicitly incorporate education in addition to the conventional age and sex. It thus adds the quality dimension to the consideration of population trends and their consequences. Based on the reconstructions to 1960 and projections to 2060 by age, sex and 7 levels of educational attainment for 170 countries produced at IIASA the returns to education have been estimated for aspects ranging from economic growth, to health, democracy, vulnerability to natural disasters and adaptive capacity to climate change. The strong effect of female education on reducing high fertility makes education a key strategy (together with family planning) towards population stabilization. In the context of ageing and shrinking societies this human resource based approach suggests that higher productivity of better educated younger cohorts can compensate for their smaller number. A consistent new population policy paradigm on fostering the human resource base for sustainable development would also make the population community much more relevant for the currently ongoing policy discussions about 21st century sustainable development and climate change.

The population in China is rapidly aging. By 2040, the total number of the population aged 60 and older will reach 400 million.The aging population issue is not unique to China. However, we can’t find a model outside of China for how to deal with an aging population of this size. This will have a major impact on the economy and society. We need to develop solutions that meet current conditions and support the future demands of elderly care．
Before we make a plan for how to best support the elderly, we must be fully aware of the current situation and especially the difference between urban and rural areas.
Based on survey that supported by Grants-in-Aid from Japanese Government conducted in urban and rural areas of Beijing in 2012, we explored current living and consumption conditions of the population aged 50 and older.
This report is structured with the following contents. Section 1 describes the main demographic transition and population aging in China. Section 2 gives an analysis regarding the current life situation that focus on economic life, social security, and the consumption conditions that focus on the Products and Services for the elderly. Section 3 indicates the challenges for the Chinese aging population and how to find the right path. Section 4 derives a conclusion regarding demand and supply of silver industry.

An analysis of Argentine and Brazilian old-age occupied people is proposed on the basis of the household surveys from 2011. For that purpose, the process of demographic ageing in both countries will be described. Some concepts related to the labour participation of old-age adults in Latin America and in the two countries subject of study will be reviewed afterwards. The focus will also be put on the relationship between the level of social security coverage and the old-age labour participation, to characterize immediately after the occupied old-age adults living in both countries.
The structure of employment of old-age adults in Argentina was clearly polarized. People with a lower education level were engaged in occupations such as construction, domestic service, care and attention of persons, industrial and handicraft production, repair and surveillance activities. On the other hand, workers with a higher education level, were engaged in occupations such as education, health, small and middle companies, administration, planning and commercialization. In Brazil, a higher concentration can be observed in less qualified occupations, and a predominance of service workers, textile industry, graphic industry, agriculture and cattle raising, sales and trade workers.

This research will be done based on the 'Korean Retirement and Income Study' Panel Data compiled by National Pension Research Institute. It will focus on the issues relative to the preparation for the post-retirement era of baby boomers, for example, what kind of life they want to live in a financial and non-financial aspects, how different are their ideal life and the reality and how they have to re-allocate their resources to obtain desirable result in preparing for their retirement and so on. The result of these analyzes is expected to give implications in regard to the changes in Korean asset market structure in the future, practicable preparatory measures for the retirement and desirable tools to form a new culture relative to the retirement.

Many low-fertility nations, and some medium-fertility nations, have adopted pronatalist views and policies in recent years in response to increasing concern about the economic impacts of population ageing. This is despite demographic analysis demonstrating that manageable rates of population growth provide only a limited deferral of ageing, which is primarily a product of longevity. New insights into the economic cost of population growth, and the required expansion of infrastructure and service capacity to accommodate it, provide a clearer comparison of the costs and benefits of this policy shift. It reveals that population growth is much more costly than the extent of ageing it may off-set. The perspectives and misconceptions from economic conventions, accounting and semantics are explored to explain the blindness of public policymakers to the perverse impacts of a pronatalist stance.

In the last decades, world population has experienced a gradual aging process due to the sharp decrease in the fertility and mortality rates. Such a process has occurred in nearly all countries in the world, and has brought forth a concern regarding the increment in the health care expenditures. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of aging process on health care expenditures in Brazil. In particular, the analysis is performed for inpatient care expenditures that took place in the public healthcare system. The methodology is based on the decomposition analysis of the difference in inpatient care expenditures observed between 2000 and 2010 in each state capital of Brazil. The analysis is performed considering all inpatient care expenditures and disaggregating by two disease groups: infectious diseases and neoplasia. According to the results, the contribution of the population aging process to the increment in inpatient care expenditures is not meaningful. However, the analysis by groups of diseases show that aging process is relevant in explaining the increment in inpatient care expenditures due to neoplasia. Therefore, our results highlight the importance in disaggregating the analysis for groups of diseases in order to understand the effect of aging process on healthcare expenditure.

Many countries across the globe have begun introducing Social Security System in order to assure a minimum standard of living for its old age population. Research around the world clearly demonstrates their impact on improving lives of older people. Government of Nepal has introduced a non-contributory benefit of income maintenance type of social security program where government provides cash transfer to all senior citizens aged 70 years.

With the growing rise in the budgetary allocation over years there is a growing concern regarding the management and long term sustainability of the program. In the light of the growing concern this paper examines the current status and effectiveness of the social security system in Nepal.

Using institutional and beneficiary survey the study found increasing magnitude of social security allowance expenditure. Serious problem of misappropriation of fund, transparency/accountability has been evident from the survey. Social security allowance has been helpful on economic wellbeing of the beneficiaries. The results suggest that beneficiaries have crucial role on the household decision making.

Some of the challenges include limited institutional capacity misuse and misappropriation of the fund unsettled advances payment through banks and poor information management.