Macro and micro perspectives on education/fertility dynamics

I will start with the need for a new population policy paradigm that covers the concerns of ageing and shrinking populations in addition to those of growing populations. Such a new paradigm should explicitly incorporate education in addition to the conventional age and sex. It thus adds the quality dimension to the consideration of population trends and their consequences. Based on the reconstructions to 1960 and projections to 2060 by age, sex and 7 levels of educational attainment for 170 countries produced at IIASA the returns to education have been estimated for aspects ranging from economic growth, to health, democracy, vulnerability to natural disasters and adaptive capacity to climate change. The strong effect of female education on reducing high fertility makes education a key strategy (together with family planning) towards population stabilization. In the context of ageing and shrinking societies this human resource based approach suggests that higher productivity of better educated younger cohorts can compensate for their smaller number. A consistent new population policy paradigm on fostering the human resource base for sustainable development would also make the population community much more relevant for the currently ongoing policy discussions about 21st century sustainable development and climate change.

This paper aims to quantitatively assess the effects of the decline of family size on the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic inequality in Ouagadougou, the capital city of Burkina Faso. More specifically, we will seek to ascertain the extent to which children's schooling outcomes vary across families with fewer versus more children, by social class. Does fertility limitation appear to be as viable (successful) a strategy for poorer families as for richer ones and, if so, might the decline in family size act to reduces the intergenerational transmission of inequality over the long-term? Data are from the DEMTREND survey that focused on children’s work and schooling behavior- on parents and also on grand-parents-, based on a subsample of the Ouagadougou DSS -, based on a subsample of the Ouagadougou DSS, which longitudinally follows a population of approximately 85000 in five neighborhoods in the capital city of Burkina Faso. This work will help us to know how demographic changes (family size and family composition) impact the transmission of social inequalities over three generations.

This study attempts to explore the effect of educational attainment on the age-sex composition of India’s population; and thus to understand the potential of its emerging demographic dividend till 2051, through multi-state population projection by levels of education. We have followed the framework of IIASA-Oxford’s new rounds of population projections by levels of educational attainment (to be released in the fall of 2012) regarding survival rates and educational attainment. The analysis is based on two scenarios where education profile in India will remain constant as of 2006; and will improve over the time. Further, we have assumed a fertility trend till 2049 based on the recent experience (Sample Registration System, 2000-2010). The projection is based on the population census of India (2001). Recent trend shows that in India, fertility rates across educational groups will not converge in near future. If India continues with current education profile, its TFR will reach 2.26 in 2021 and likely to remain constant, whereas given the assumed educational attainment they will reach the below-replacement-level TFR in 2041, with a slow but continuous decline in fertility rates. The demographic dividend is found to be highly dependent upon the level of education, which increases the productivity.

During the last couple of decades, India has experienced a steady fall in its fertility. Studies exploring the impact of reductions in family size on life choices of young people, including educational outcomes among them are, however, limited in India. Drawing on data obtained from a sub-nationally representative study of youth in India, this paper seeks to examine the associations between declines in family size and educational outcomes among young people. Data from 13,627 and 6,824 young women and men aged 20-24, respectively, are used. Preliminary findings underscore that declines in family size is positively correlated with educational outcomes among young people. Young women and men from households with no/single sibling were more likely to have completed secondary education, and attended the last class regularly. These effects were more apparent in more progressive states than less progressive states.