Demographic windows of opportunity and economic growth

While a number of studies have examined the demographic processes behind Indonesia’s youth bulge, or have noted the potential consequences at a macro level, there have been no large scale studies of the political and religious views and attitudes of Indonesia’s youth bulge. In this paper we aim to shed some light on this issue using data from a recent survey of 3,006 Indonesian young adults aged 20-34 living in Greater Jakarta. The data collected a wide range of information on the religious and political views, and digital connectedness of young adults, as well as their life time aspirations and satisfaction with various aspects of their current lives. Such study is timely given the current political situation in Indonesia, a country with the largest Muslim population in the world. About twelve years following the onset of the Reform in 1998, forces of democracy continue to compete with a plethora of conservative movements promoting traditional customary laws and religious sentiments, including at one extreme, a call for an Islamic state.

Closely related to the demographic dynamics and the changes in reproductive behavior, it has been observed a marked increase of women participation in economic activities. We talk about a gender dividend insofar as this process may turn into a direct contribution of women to the countries' economic growth, complementing and fostering the demographic dividend.
Based on the data from household surveys and projections of economically active population for the Latin American countries, which are available at ECLAC, this study aims at describing and projecting women’s labor force participation in economic activity in a context of gender equality.
This study intends to be a contribution to the theoretical and methodological development of the topic and to contribute to raising awareness and capacity in the countries of the region in assessing the economic impact of demographic changes and incorporating a gender-based approach into sustainable development and poverty reduction policies.

The paper analyses the macro-dynamic interaction between demographic trends and capital accumulation in Brazil, for the period 1995-2012, to detect its short term impacts on Macroeconomic performance and its long-run effects on social and economic development. The effects of this interaction are crucial because they affect business decisions and investment, then the pace of growth and generation of employment and income. However, the financialization of the Brazilian economy imposes structural and endogenous limits to the opportunities generated by the demographic transition. However, the analysis found empirical evidences that do not support the conventional argument, derived from neoclassical economics, that Brazil would have insufficiency of domestic savings. The main problem concerns the dominance of unproductive allocation of corporate and household savings, stimulated by a financialization process based on high interest income. As a result, the rates of productive investment are very low and thus, the rates of aggregate savings also remain very low. On the other hand, in this macroeconomic environment, characterized by high interest rates and predominance of rentier income accumulation, the life cycle theory of consumption is unable to explain the main stylized facts of the development experience of Brazil.

The age-sex composition is very important in many aspects. It has direct impact on education and labor force planning, in addition to its interrelationship with several socio-economic, and demographic factors. It is also affected and shaped by demographic factors, especially fertility transitions. This is especially true in the case of Saudi Arabia, since fertility has declined gradually from high as 7 in 1985 to low rates around 3 births per woman in 2010 and thus possibly commencing what is called “Demographic Window”.
In light of the availability of new data from the recent census that was conducted in 2010, it has become necessary to identify and understand changes in demographic characteristics of the population, especially age and sex.
Therefore, utilizing the data from four population censuses, this study aims to evaluate the accuracy and explore age-sex transitional changes that occur during the period (1974-2010) and present spatial variations across the 13 Administrative Areas of Saudi Arabia
Finally the study emphasizes the some policy implications, especially those related to education, youth, and employment.

The association between population growth and economic development has been debated for a long time. This effect is expected to be strongest in developing countries with persistent high fertility and population growth rates, such as Uganda. This paper investigated whether or not Uganda will experience a demographic dividend and if so when this is likely to occur. The paper also investigated the likely effects of Uganda’s youthful population on the education and health sectors. The paper used the cohort component projection to project the population of Uganda and assess whether or not it would achieve the demographic dividend. The results show that at the current level of fertility Uganda’s population will continue to grow and will reach a high of 125 million by 2072 under the low fertility assumptions and Uganda will not begin to enjoy demographic dividend until after 2072. This could adversely affect the attainment of the demographic dividend.

The pyramid shaped population age structure of Sri Lanka is now turning to a shape of a barrel. The age structure transition, covering the period of 1991 to 2030, has produced a demographic window of opportunity, which is conducive for an economic take-off in the country. During this period, the proportion of the people in the working ages (aged 15-59/64 years) is noted to be significantly larger than the proportion in the dependent age categories (aged less than 15 and 60/65 years and above). Nevertheless if the working age is defined as 15-59 years, the most lucrative part of the demographic window would fade away by 2017. Thus the remaining period of the dividend will be as short as only five years. The mere existence of a favourable demographic dividend would not be effective without a proper environment for economic acceleration. Nevertheless in a congenial environment of political stability, adequate savings, investment potential including the ability to draw FDI, development of human capital, productivity and knowledge based economy, the optimum utilization of the demographic window to gain economic acceleration would materialize. Failing to capitalize this best demographic environment immediately along with the rapid aging process, the Sri Lankan planners will encounter with demographic turbulence in the near future.

Age structure of the population is a vital aspect in analyzing its linkages with the economy. Indonesia is estimated to reach demographic bonus in 2020-2030. However, Indonesia's labor force has not been optimally absorbed in the job market. How big the economy must be driven to utilize the economic potential requiring in-depth study on the development of the workforce and its impact on economic growth that becomes the purpose of this study. Some demographic and economic variables are used in series during 1960-2012. Descriptive and inferential analysis using Cobb Douglas production function are methods of analysis used in this study. The analysis aims to portray the result both at national and provincial level. The result confirms that demographic bonus in Indonesia will occur in 2025 with its lowest dependency rate at 44.2. In Java-Bali provinces, Jakarta is currently enjoying the bonus and others are closely approaching. The increase in the number of workers has little impact on gross domestic product growth and an increase in the number of workers is not necessarily accompanied by an increase in total factor productivity nationally. Based on these findings, several thoughts are proposed for valuable Government’s insight in formulating appropriate policy.

A window of opportunity for fast economic growth is automatically created by sustained fertility decline. However, its realization depends upon the quality (education and skills) of the labor force and economic policies of the day. Fertility decline from about six to 2.6 births between the 1960s and 2008 in India has now raised the prospects of demographic dividend. However, the timing and the pace of fertility decline has not been uniform among the major states. Consequently, the potential for reaping the benefits of demographic dividend also differs among states. This paper traces the common link between policies that contribute to fertility transition as well as create the right kind of environment for reaping the benefit of demographic dividend. The data used for major states in India suggest this link to be the early investment in social development. For example, southern states made earlier investments in social development and experienced fertility transition early. They now have better educated labor force and hence are ready to transform the window of opportunity in to economic growth. However, northern states did not invest adequately in social development early and are now lagging behind in both fertility transition and the quality of the labor force. They are not ready to reap the benefits of demographic dividend.

Like many other African countries, Ghana has had youthful population with high concentration of the population in ages under 15 years. The economic implications of Ghana’s youthful population have been stressed by policy makers and researchers. But the recent realization of demographic dividend by some Asian countries provides evidence of the potential of benefits that Ghana can derive from its large population in future. The present paper examines the prospects of demographic dividend in Ghana. The findings show that the population of the working ages (14 million) at the 2010 census will almost double by 2040 (27.8 million). By 2050, it will constitute 65% of the total national population while children (0- 14 years) and the aged (65+ years) will form 27% and 8% respectively. The age dependency burden will drop as the working age has fewer children. Prospects of stable economic and governance structures and social development also indicate that Ghana may emerge as one of the few African countries that may reap demographic dividend during the first part of the 21st Century. The paper recommends that Ghana’s human development agenda should not neglect population management now and in the future.

Population with their subjects is one of the basic issues in total of demographic theories. There are completely different theory about relationship between population and economic growth because human is one hand as a consumer and other hand as a product input.
Iran will be examined as a case study in (1960-2011). The methodology to estimate empirical results will be Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technic that is based on theoretical model in economics whereas production is function of capital and population. The model is estimated via software.
The dynamic equations and long-term results showed that the total estimated coefficients have significant effect on economic growth that is in accordance with theoretical expectations.
Error correction model results indicate that 76 percent of the imbalance in economic growth in each period adjusted to the long-term relationship.
The results showed that capital and population in the short and long run affect positively on economic growth, but the years when Iran was involved Islamic Republic Revulsion has negative effects on it. Therefore, population with correct mixed physical capital lead country to obtain more GDP that is main factor to develop.