Abstract
Understanding population growth and fertility patterns are essential in achieving sustainable developments. Various fertility models have been suggested in the developed countries but such is lacking in developing countries. This study assessed factors affecting fertility outcomes among Nigerian women using Poisson regression model.
We used Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, 2008 data consisting 33,385 aged 15-49 years. Multi-factors additive Poisson regression models was fitted to respondents’ total children ever born (CEB) to determine best fitted model for predicting fertility at 5%.significance level while other analysis were done using descriptive statistics.
Mean age of respondents was 28.64±9.59 while average CEB was 2.53±2.7 and 3.42±3.1 in urban and rural areas respectively. Women with tertiary education were about 30% time less likely to have as many children as uneducated (IRR=0.73 95% CI:0.70-0.75). Expected number of children per woman is modeled. In average, an uneducated currently married and unemployed woman aged 40-44 years from rural North-East Nigeria with 25-29 years of marriage would have had 8 children (c=7.59±0.01).
Poisson model is suitable for modeling and predicting expected number of children by women using factors such as age, educational, locality
Key word: Fertility, IRR, Poisson
We used Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, 2008 data consisting 33,385 aged 15-49 years. Multi-factors additive Poisson regression models was fitted to respondents’ total children ever born (CEB) to determine best fitted model for predicting fertility at 5%.significance level while other analysis were done using descriptive statistics.
Mean age of respondents was 28.64±9.59 while average CEB was 2.53±2.7 and 3.42±3.1 in urban and rural areas respectively. Women with tertiary education were about 30% time less likely to have as many children as uneducated (IRR=0.73 95% CI:0.70-0.75). Expected number of children per woman is modeled. In average, an uneducated currently married and unemployed woman aged 40-44 years from rural North-East Nigeria with 25-29 years of marriage would have had 8 children (c=7.59±0.01).
Poisson model is suitable for modeling and predicting expected number of children by women using factors such as age, educational, locality
Key word: Fertility, IRR, Poisson
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17
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54 091
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English
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